The partial release of court documents adds to the doubts of veracity on the part of the FBI. Any good lawyer can make a case against someone if all they have to do is provide the allegations and (if any) the evidence that the party is guilty and they get to conceal the exculpatory evidence, and that is clearly what the FBI has been attempting. Add to that the clear fact that the media reporters have simply been breathlessly reporting whatever they were handed by the FBI Public Relations people, and the fact that even the selected material does not hold together to make a case that answers means - motive - opportunity makes the entire exercise as smelly as a week-old dead fish.
I am not the only individual who is suspicious of the entire set of FBI actions. Here is a set of comments received by the New York Times about the case.
Motive
Just a quick thumbnail sketch of my evaluation of the publicly reported evidence and allegations shows that the weakest part of the FBI's case is Ivins' motive. There is none. So the FBI has been throwing every allegation of mental instability they can find to the ravening wolves of the Press Corps in hopes that no one will see that the allegations are from highly suspicious sources and are strongly refuted by both his ling history at the research facility and passing of security screenings and by those who know him personally. Essentially we are supposed to take it for granted that the incomplete evidence/assertions releases by the FBI hang together and prove the case. That requires ignoring the earlier flub the FBI made with Steven Hatfill.
The fact is that the FBI has simply not presented a case for a motive for Bruce Ivins to have sent the Anthrax mailings that holds together. I have little doubt that the prosecutors have been delighted that they will not have to prove their case in court because of Ivins' very timely death.
Means
Means is problem the strongest element the FBI has made a case for. There is no reason to doubt that the anthrax spores came from a U.S. Government laboratory. No other source has been reasonably asserted (after the early failed efforts of the White House to blame al Qaeda in order to support the invasion of Iraq - a nation not connected to and in fact antagonistic to al Qaeda. But that is a different story.)
That does suggest that Bruce Ivins had the means to obtain the anthrax spores. But so did Steven Hatfill, to whom the FBI has paid $5 million and given an apology for fingering to the Press. These were not the only possible researchers, either. Nothing really pins it down to Ivins except the allegation by the FBI that a newly developed DNA test pinpoints the anthrax in the attacks to the same strain that Ivins himself worked with and controlled. The FBI claims the DNA test is valid and reliable, but that is not the same thing as showing the test is valid and reliable. I'd bet that we never see a public evaluation of that DNA test. That's one of the bullets the prosecutors dodged by not having to present their case in court.
Opportunity
There is also no evidence that Ivins had unique access to the stamped envelopes used to send the anthrax that was in any way different from everyone else in Maryland, or that he was ever at any of the very distant mailboxes the FBI has identified as being where the Anthrax was mailed. In short, Ivins simply cannot be connected to the process of mailing the anthrax based on the evidence the FBI has released.
This is not an exhaustive analysis of the FBI's case as it has been presented in the media. I am simply not sufficiently obsessive to dig into each and every piece of data that has appeared in the media. This is just an analysis of what is missing that still needs to be proven if the FBI is going to show that Bruce Ivins was actually the anthrax killer. The most difficult element is going to be motive.
But it is also very important to recognize that the FBI is not itself an organization that can be trusted to present an honest case because of their history in this case and others tried in the Press. They previously locked onto a prime suspect (Hatfill) and aggressively investigated him and now are trying him in the Press when they couldn't get him into court, and they are doing it again with Bruce Ivins. It is very important that there has been no testing evidence in court in front of a jury and now that Ivins is dead, there never will be.
It looks like the evidence that the FBI is attempting to cover up its failures in the anthrax attacks is a lot stronger than the evidence that Bruce Ivins was the anthrax killer.
Addendum Aug 10, 2008 3:17 pm CDT
Glenn Greenwald (8/10/08) points out that the timeline the FBI claims Bruce Ivins had to use to mail the anthrax envelopes from Princeton is actually an alibi for Ivins. Had Ivins used the time to mail the envelopes the FBI claims he did, they would have been postmarked Sept 17th instead of Sept 18th as they actually were. Greenwald also links to numerous other source debunking the FBI's allegations.
EmptyWheel (8/9/08) makes a similar argument to the one Glenn Greenwald did.
Bmaz (8/9/08) explains how the FBI ran an investigation which caused at least one other individual besides Bruce Ivings to commit suicide, and also how the FBI investigation broke up marriages and ruined careers for people never actually accused of anything.
Bmaz also makes the point I made earlier.
Since the government conveniently refused to perform a full autopsy, we will never know the myriad of clues and evidence on whether it really was a suicide. Having hounded and stalked Mr. Ivins to death, by whatever the means, the government seized the immediate, and I mean immediate, opportunity to dump the entire culpability for it's entire pathetic Amerithrax investigation on him. How convenient.I guess that we can trust the FBI not to have somehow murdered Ivins, can't we?
Oh, and while we are at it, there is this great money-making bridge in the Arizona desert I can sell to you. Let's not forget Cheney's careful plans to create "plusible deniability." Plausible deniability is not something found only inside the White House. It permeates the entire government, and the FBI has practiced it for years under Hoover and since.
EmptyWheel (8/9/08) also points out that Ivins took and passed a lie detector test shortly after the anthrax attacks occurred. Strange how the FBI did not include that information in their PR campaign against a dead man so that they can close the investigation they have so royally screwed up.
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