The lessons of Ohio 02

Democrat Paul Hackett did not defeat Republican Jean Schmidt in the second congressional district of Ohio Tuesday, but it was a district that last November gave Kerry only 36% of the vote. The same district gave Hackett 48%.

A Congressman who wins with less than 55% of the vote is considered threatened in the next election. Jean Schmidt, in one of the most Republican congressional districts in the nation, is threatened in November 2006.

Charlie Cook says this in his postmortem newsletter:

Republicans in 49 states should take note that the "don't send a rubber stamp for President Bush to Congress" argument very nearly worked in an extremely Republican district, something that should be cause for concern. In Ohio, the lesson should be that virtually nothing is safe given the current climate, and that the climate is unlikely to change before the 2006 election. While it would be a mistake for Democrats to read too much into this special election result since things in Ohio are much worse for the GOP than elsewhere. At the same time, it would be a grave mistake for Republicans to read too little into what happened, as there are plenty of seats that they could lose in Ohio and that some of what happened can be reasonably extrapolated to the rest of the country.

This will do two things for Democrats. First, it will make recruiting effective candidates easier for every Congressional District in the U.S. Second, it will make it easier to get funds from the liberals on the internet.

November 2006 is going to be an interesting election.