Will Rove be fired? The Republican dliemma.

David Corn has presented his argument that even if Rove is NOT prosecuted for exposing Valerie Plame as a covert CIA agent his actions are so egregious that he must be fired. His argument is a strong, logical one.

Marshall Wittman, who Josh Marshall calls someone who "...understands internal GOP politics as well as anyone..." disagrees. Wittmann presents his view that Rove is the indispensable man for the Republicans. They can't fire him. Wittmann's argument is also a strong one.

It is my opinion that if Bush does not fire Rove, then Rove will become the new face of the Republican Party for the 2006 election, much as Newt Gingrich was in 1998. That will make 2006 into a referendum on the War in Iraq, Social Security phase out, the corruption of Republicans like Randy "Duke" Cunningham, Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay -- and the nastiness exemplified by Karl Rove.

That means that the Republican Congressional leaders will want Rove gone. But Bush does not make rational decisions. He makes intuitive decisions and then ignores any question of the decision or its outcome. He is also incredibly loyal to his subordinates.

My prediction is that Rove will escape the narrow scope of the law against exposing covert CIA agents, and Wittman is correct. Bush will not fire Rove. Bush will get a great deal of pressure to do so, because Rove in the White House WILL cost Republican seats in Congress in 2006. But Bush reacts to that kind of pressure by digging his heels in and refusing to accept the pressure. Loyalty and intuition, not facts and logic. That is the Bush way.

If Rove committed perjury or lied to the FBI, then this won't apply, but I give Rove more credit than that. Otherwise, we will continue to have Rove to kick around for a while yet.

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Addendum - same day
The Bush White House is stating its whole-hearted support for Rove. This is how Pete yost of AP reports that Both Bush and his press spokeman, Scott McClellan, dealt with the issue.:

"Bush did not respond to a reporter's question Tuesday about whether he would fire Rove, in keeping with a June 2004 pledge to dismiss any leakers of Valerie Plame's identity.

At a White House briefing afterward, spokesman Scott McClellan was pressed about Rove's future.

"Any individual who works here at the White House has the confidence of the president. They wouldn't be working here at the White House if they didn't have the president's confidence," McClellan said."

Don't expect any change short of an indictment.