Bush's nominee is to be the 'Huh? Candidate' - John Roberts

The three possible choices were 1. a widely unacceptable 'in-your-face' conservative, 2. a reasonable 'consensus' candidate, or 3. an unknown that leaves you wondering 'Huh?' The choice of nominee and the timing of his announcement tells us a bit about the current status of the White House.

About Roberts we know very little. He has not been a major player on the national political stage. Decent legal education, clerked for Rhenquist when Rhenquist was an associate justice, long time Republican activist who participated in the 2000 Florida Fiasco that appointed Bush President, and a corporate lawyer who has been a federal judge for only two years.

In short we don't yet know much about him and his qualifications or lack thereof. That is going to take some digging out. We will see that occur over the next few weeks. The last five years of battles against Bush have created an anti-Bush industry that will jump on the task with great relish.
About Bush himself, however, this nomination tells us a great deal. First there is the timing. With a deadline of October to have the new Justice confirmed, nominating Roberts now gives maximum time for opponents to dig up history and form effective opposition. Delaying his nomination would have made it an easier process. The timing of this announcement is 'all Rove - all the time.'

This is classic use of the President's power to set the national political agenda. The media heat will shift like a spotlight from Rove to Roberts. Since the shift in media focus does nothing about Fitzgerald's investigation, it only gives Rove time to arrange his defenses. With time the Republicans may stumble on to something to save Rove, but there is nothing obvious available to achieve that right now. They are playing for time here.

The nomination of a 'huh' candidate tells how Bush and Rove see the current power of Bush's Presidency. An 'in-your-face' nominee would have said that Bush felt as powerful and as unstoppable as he did when he took on reform of Social Security. The current near-dead status of that effort and Bush's low poll ratings suggest that he should not feel as on top of everything and as all-powerful as he clearly did last November. This nomination tells us that Bush/Rove is aware of the current state of the Presidency.

A reasonable 'consensus' candidate would have told us that he felt chastened and felt that he believed he needed to respect the Constitution and the normal American political processes in Washington. But a nominee reflecting that would have a long and distinguished record as a federal judge. That sure isn't John Roberts.

So what we have is a 'Huh?' nominee - a stealth candidate submitted early to protect Rove from the media. Roberts is also an effort to quietly push the Supreme Court to the right while being a statement that Bush's imperial presidency has been reduced. Bush still believes he was elected to change the rules in Washington and across the nation. He feels that he needs to be a bit more circumspect than he was when he stated he had political capital that he intended to spend. He is still working to change the political landscape for decades to come. I would bet that, unlike Souter who was really a last minute choice, Roberts has been watched, evaluated and groomed for this moment since before the 2000 election.

This early nomination does remove Rove from the media spotlight for a moment. It is an admission that the recent spate of orchestrated leaks and the full-court press by the entire Republican Party leadership has not helped Rove and may have hurt the Republican Party.

It is also a demonstration of the fact that everything a president does affects everything else he is doing or is going to try to do. The failure of the Social Security initiative weakened the Bush Presidency, as did the filibuster issue and the attempt to apply the 'nuclear option.' The failure of the John Bolton nomination has also weakened the presidency. Bolton has been a self-inflicted wound.

The recent Supreme Court decision acknowledged that Cooper and Miller did not have sufficient rights under the reporters shield concept to continue to conceal Rove and Libby from the grand jury. The refusal to accept the case by the Supreme Court finalized the judicial process and opened a large wound in the Presidency. It also demonstrated the central role Rove has played in the White House operations.

The rapid series of leaks and the defense of Rove by the entire right wing since Cooper handed off his notes and Miller went to jail shows how many Republicans feel threatened by a threat to Karl Rove. Because of the threat to Rove and Rove's importance to the party we have watvched the entire Republican Party flailing around like a fish on a hook. The relatively early submission of Robert's nomination indicates that they do not feel Rove has yet succeeded in slipping the hook. Instead Rove is lying, tired, in the bottom of the boat. The action is now elsewhere - for the moment.

One last piece of speculation. The Republican Party has built a national political juggernaut which has given them the Presidency since LBJ unless they somehow screwed up. The Democrats, not realizing that the political landscape has changed, have failed to adapt. That is what happened to both Gore and Kerry. Each would have governed much better than Bush has, but neither had access to a political machine which could get them elected.

Bush, however, by overreaching politically, has forced the Democrats to begin to organize. Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean are all new Democratic leaders learning to respond to the Republican on-slaught. Each time the Republicans have taken a generally unpopular action like the attempt to destroy Social Security the Democrats and Progressives have become more effective in countering them. It has been a bit like LBJ's slow escalation in Vietnam. Each time there has been a small escalation, the opponents have learned to deal with it and gotten stronger.

The same process has worked against the Bush administration as they attempted to occupy Iraq with an inadequate military and no effective plan. Essentially, the Republicans seem to be able to elect candidates, but they cannot plan a government or effectively govern a nation. Their set of right-wing ideologies are a public relations positive, but is a complete bust when applied to reality.

So much for searching for portents regarding the Bush Presidency in the entrails of the Supreme Court nominee.