Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Musharraf not expected to last in office

Juan Cole provides further insight on the situation in Pakistan.
The government stonewalling on the issue of an autopsy and the coercion of government employees to toe a pre-determined line, smells to high heaven of complicity. It could be incompetence or stupidity, of course. And the Pakistani military is not all one thing. There is the Inter-Services Intelligence, some members of whom have long ties to Muslim militants. There is the officer corps, etc.

Three further notes: The Pakistan People's Party members and other opponents of Musharraf already were thinking like this before circumstantial evidence emerged that made it even more plausible. I fear their conviction will now be unshakeable, which does not bode well for social peace. It would be a feud.

Second, the physicians would not have had their lawyer speak out about their having been coerced by the military if they thought that Musharraf was likely to continue in office. That is, they have made a bet on a PPP prime minister and are more afraid of being punished by the new government than they are of being punished by the old one. Do they think the old one is about to be overthrown?

And, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, head of the Muslim League (N), called Monday for Musharraf to resign, saying of him, "He is a one-man calamity and the source of all the problems. The country is burning."
Dr. Cole makes a lot of sense here. I find his second point especially compelling. The Doctors really wouldn't have released that statement if they thought Musharraf was likely to last in office.

Apparently Dr. Cole was unaware of the story of that Bhutto was going to meet with Sen. Specter and Rep. Kennedy about the fixed election. Whether true or not, that story will also fit into Dr. Cole's first point. The members of the PPP are not going to believe anything the government says. Either Musharraf resigns or Pakistan is headed towards severe instability, even civil war.

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