Good news from a bad source - George Will

I really hope George isn't overstating the case so as to lull the Democrats into a state of complacency.

Today, all the usual indicators are dismal for Republicans. If that broad assertion seems counterintuitive, produce a counterexample. The adverse indicators include: shifts in voters' identifications with the two parties (Democrats now 50 percent, Republicans 36 percent); the tendency of independents (they favored Democratic candidates by 18 points in 2006); the fact that Democrats hold a majority of congressional seats in states with 303 electoral votes; the Democrats' strength and the Republicans' relative weakness in fundraising; the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the "wrong track"; the Republicans' enthusiasm deficit relative to Democrats' embrace of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, one of whom will be nominated.

Iowa and New Hampshire were two of the three states (New Mexico was the third) that changed partisan alignment between 2000 and 2004 -- Iowa turning red, New Hampshire blue. This month, Democratic participation was twice the Republican participation in Iowa and almost 22 percent higher in New Hampshire. George W. Bush won Iowa by just 0.67 percent of the vote. Whomever the Republicans nominate should assume that he must replace Iowa's seven electoral votes if he is to reach Bush's 2004 total of 286.

Republicans try to take comfort from the fact that 61 Democratic members of Congress represent districts that President Bush carried in 2004. But 37 of those won with at least 55 percent of the vote. Furthermore, 14 Republican representatives won in 2006 by a single percentage point or less.

And this is only half way through January, with the election scheduled for November. I mean, the Recession hasn't even gotten well started yet, although Bank of America has has to bail out the nation's largest Mortgage Banker, Countrywide, while both Merrill Lynch and Citibank are trying to sell themselves to foreign governments (no one else has the necessary $ billions.) to avoid bankruptcy, while Iraq has pretty much dropped off the radar (American news only reports American casualties, not the nature or progress of the war.)

The old saying remains true that a week in politics is a long time and a month is forever. Nine months until the election is a really, really long time with a lot of possible events that could change things. For one thing, what does a self-financed Bloomberg campaign mean? Or a major attack on Americans by Bush's old friends, the terrorists? Bush still has Osama bin Laden in reserve, you know. Ever wonder why he never tried to catch bin Laden? And the Press still wants the Republicans back in office, if for no other reason than that they will have to develop all new sources when the Democrats get elected. Conservative Republican sources since Reagan was elected have been the basis for the careers of most top Washington journalists, and a Democratic executive branch is going to mean that most of them are starting over in competition with the new journalists. Expect the Press to fight against the Democrats and go easy on the Republicans.

But for the moment, except for a few clouds on the horizon, things look really good for the Democrats. Just ask George Will.