Here is his conclusion:
Look especially at item #2. If the economy creates fewer than 150,000 jobs each month, things are getting worse. Remember this the next time the Republicans announce that under their regime some number of jobs have been created. Convert that number to a monthly number, subtract 150,000 and every negative result is a bad month.
- Forget the unemployment rate – look at the labor force participation rate or the employment/population ratio.
- Because the working age population of the US is going up every month, the job market must create jobs just to stay even. Roughly 150,000 jobs a month. If it creates less than that, consider things to have gotten worse.
- The Establishment survey is more accurate than the household survey. If the gap between the two surveys is decreasing that’s usually good. If it’s increasing, that’s usually bad."
You need to go read his discussion to see why he says this.