Iraq to be long, slow slog

The administration keeps saying that we have turned the corner in Iraq, that is it just a matter of time before the Iraqis have their own army in place to control the insurgents. The election in January shows that we are winning.

Maybe.

The Washington Post reports what most knowledgeable people think is really happening. The most polite way to view those statements is that the Bush people are telling us what they hope will happen in the long run.

"Military commanders in Iraq privately told a visiting congressional delegation last week that the United States is at least two years away from adequately training a viable Iraqi military but that it is no longer reasonable to consider augmenting U.S. troops already strained by the two-year operation, said Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.).

[…]

A Western diplomat in Baghdad said victory would have to be won in a drawn-out struggle that will have peaks and valleys. "We should not expect some big-bang breakthrough so that one day the insurgency ends," he said on the condition of anonymity. "We should expect a long grind-it-out." After all, he said, "this is the hardest thing we've done to try to rebuild a state almost from zero."

So we are in Iraq for a long, nasty period and no real end is in immediate sight. We don't have the troops that would be required to augment those there now.

This confirms my previous blogs, Insurgents recognize effectiveness of suicide bombings - Bombings increase and The hollow Army - recruitment dropping. The war in Iraq is not going to end soon, and our military capability is rapidly being used up. For the U.S. to stay in Iraq for the long term and be effective in controlling the insurgency is unlikely without a draft.

Iraq is a lot bloodier, nastier, and long-lasting than Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld anticipated. But as Powell famously told them "You break it, you own it." Iraq will be the defining event of the Bush Presidency. But that is long term, and for this administration, nothing really matters except the next election.

Seen as of right now, Iraq and Tom DeLay are going to be the major issues in the election of 2006. There is a good chance that in the late Summer of 2006 Bush will declare victory and pull the troops out of Iraq, regardless of consequences in Iraq. That timing will gain votes for Republicans in November 2006 for ending the war while being so close to the election that the inevitable resulting disasters will not taint the Republicans much.

Of course, a major terrorist attack on the American Homeland could change that analysis for the worse in all ways, except for the Republican election prospects. Unfortunately, any more positive expectations are based on fantasies, hopes, dreams and lies rather than fact.