From Billmon - Next 16 months to be nasty.

Billmon agrees with me that things are going to get and stay nasty.

It's hard to see how Rove and the gang can expect to sit down and negotiate seriously with the Democrats over Social Security after launching what looks to be a sustained PR campaign denouncing them as traitors and/or terrorist dupes. My guess is that the decision to launch Operation Scapegoat was based, at least in part, on a hardheaded calculation by Rove (although maybe not the meathead he works for) that Social Security reform is effectively dead, leaving only the question of how to position the GOP for the inevitable fallout.

The Rovian strategy, it appears, is to try to label the Democrats as "obstructionists." It's pretty a weak line, given the complete lack of a popular groundswell of support for trashing the existing Social Security system, but it at least keeps the GOP on the offensive, which is where Rove always wants to be.

The Dems-as-traitors meme is simply an attempt to extend the same strategy to the disaster in Iraq. Obviously, the Rovians would like to focus the debate on "liberal" attempts to expose or question the administration's policies -- such as the use of "practices tantamount to torture" -- rather than on the abject failure of those policies.

But once it becomes clear Rove has elected the path of total confrontation, all along the line, there will be no further incentive for the average hack GOP congress critter to put his or her neck on that line in order to advance the more controversial items (Social Security, a flat tax) on Bush's domestic agenda -- especially if the Democrats can remain relatively (i said relatively!) united.

Once set in motion, in other words, the strategy is largely self-reinforcing. Rove must be aware of that, which in turn must mean he's content to remain in campaign mode -- feeding a steady diet of red meat to the base and vicious lies to the public -- until November 2006.

It appears the next 16 months in American politics are going to be particularly ugly -- even by Rovian standards.

I was part-way there when I wrote the previous blog but I don't think I really wanted to see how bad it is going to get.

The Supreme Court nomination this Summer will be brutal. Bush is angry that he is being balked on Social Security and on John Bolton. Bush (and Rove and Cheney) hate being balked. They will react as they normally do and take revenge on those who got in the way. This time it will be the entire Democratic Party. To make their revenge satisfactory, the Supreme Court nominee will have as unappetizing as possible to the Democrats. Then Bush will try to shove whoever it is down their throats. The Republicans will pretend it is part of an overall strategy to govern, but it won't be. The basic reason is going to be revenge.

The only satisfactory revenge will be for the Democrats to grovel. Grovelling will destroy the Democratic Party, and I don't see Harry Reid or Howard Dean grovelling for the Bush people.

So we ain't seen ugly yet. But we will. And soon.