But the courts, if they respond at all, will respond slowly. The White House "wins" if it makes it to the election of November 2008 without responding. Why would the White House cave on letting his subordinates testify? He doesn't even have an anointed successor who needs his support? As soon as the Primary nominations are over, whoever the Republican nominee for President is will be running from the Bush Presidency like he was on fire.
Bush has lost everything in his Presidency. He has no successes beyond merely being elected twice. He just attempted to push immigration reform through Congress and got shot down by his own Party. His legacy is the invasion of Iraq. He is not going to create a twin legacy of Iraq - first invading, then being the President who admits defeat by withdrawing from Iraq.
Oh, yeah. Iraq. September.
Gen. Petreaus will report that there has been some slight progress, and we just need more time. I don't know the General, or even anything personal about him that hasn't been in the media, but there is no doubt that he is a professional with a great deal of respect from his peers. But he knows better than most what the occupation of Iraq has cost the military and how really well they have performed. Professionals do not quit when there is a possibility of success, especially when they have a heavy emotional investment. How could he continue leading our military in Iraq presently and count the costs in lives and treasure now, then in September come back and say "It can't be won"? Then, in the middle of the maelstrom there will always be indicators that point in every direction. All he has to do is select the indicators that suggest possible success. That will not be difficult. Admitting failure will be extremely difficult, professionally, politically, and very probably personally.
He is going to tell America, Bush and the Congress in September that Iraq can be won but it will take more time and effort. There were probably all kinds of indicators in the defeated South after Reconstruction that allowed predictions that the freed slaves would quickly assimilate into society and that Peace would be restored. Violent terrorism by the KKK and the White majority prevented that from happening for over a century, and it still required violence to end the twin evils of segregation and terrorist repression of the African-American population.
It won't be difficult for Gen. Petreaus to report that we can win in just a little more time, since that is the only message Bush is prepared to hear. That's the case for Cheney, too, if he is still in office.
What's left? Impeach Bush? Empty, time-wasting gesture. The Senate will never permit him to be convicted and everything else in Congress would come to a stop for six months to a year. The American people would see such a gesture as what it was - a symptom of Democratic frustration because they can't do anything to get the rat out of his hole.
Except for the Presidential nomination runs this year, the almost inevitable attempt by terrorists to attack America here in the homeland sometime before the next Presidential election, and possibly the third security threat to America predicted around year 2000 [*] - the California earthquake, probably in San Francisco, this looks like an extremely frustrating, even politically barren, year coming up.
The White House stone-masons are hard at work, and why not? They have nothing else to do until after November 2008 and they are in a well protected position. About all we can do is watch.
[*] the three predicted security threats to America were:
- A major terrorist attack on a large American city,
- A major hurricane hitting New Orleans, and
- A major earthquake hitting California, particularly in San Francisco.
Nothing prevents the other two events from occurring again, either. Real life will continue regardless of what the politicians find it possible to do or to blather about.
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