Saturday, July 15, 2006

Why is Israel responding to the kidnappings so radically?

Steve Clements who writes Washington Note has been talking to a number of analysts and puts together a very interesting post on the subject.
"Why is Israel pounding most of Lebanon rather than just the South and rather than pinpointing its attack against Hezbollah assets? Why the dramatic bombing of explosive fuel centers? The attacks both in Gaza and in Beirut seem made for Fox News, CNN and the next Schwarzenegger movie."
Steve offers several reasons.

First, Israeli PM Olmert and his deputy are new in the job and do not have the long military experience that Sharon did, so they are demonstrating that they do not fear using military force.

Second, Steve thinks that this is an effort by the Israelis to limit the freedom of Americans to negotiate with Iran and the Palestinians in ways that the Israelis do not want. The Americans were subtly negotiating with Iran over and around the nuclear weapons issue, and apparently getting to some results. Also, Washington was negotiating with all the Arab Middle Eastern states in order to arrange a face-saving partial withdrawal of troops from Iraq. This could amount to a broad new game for all teh nations in the Middle East, and the Israelis didn't like some parts of it (like putting Syria onto a track like that of Libya that gets them out of the international doghouse.) Finally, the Americans and Abbas have been pushing the more reasonable leaders in Hamas towards a recognition of Israel, and the Israelis do not like the ramifications of that. The Israelis do not want the U.S. negotiating deals that they do not approve of in advance. Right now, the U.S. deals with the Middle East largely with guidance and assistance from Israel. They don't want American haring off on its own and damaging their security.

Third, the ability of Hezbollah and Hamas to plan and carry off the kidnappings showed a new ability that the terrorist organizations did not previously have. So did the ability to shower missiles onto Israel, and the ability of Hezbollah to attack an Israeli missile frigate at sea with an explosives-laden drone was both unexpected and quite a bit beyond what Israeli Intelligence expected was possible. These factors have all scared the Israeli top brass, so they are reacting very strongly.

I don't know how accurate all this is, but it makes sense to me. Which probably means it is nowhere close to really describing the byzantine processes in the Middle East.

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