Friday, July 28, 2006

Economy looks like going into the tank

Kevin Drum has another of his charts up. He has charted the number of times that "stagflation" has been discussed on Lexis-Nexus each month this year, and it suddenly spikes up very sharply in June.

Stagflation is considered a (sometimes) predictor of Recession. In this case it is probably a reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate manipulations and their failure to dampen the inflation caused by recently increased oil prices.

If the discussion stays high through July and August (his July posting is an estimate since July is not yet over) that will set the economic expectations for voters in November. They will be quite negative. And a negative view of the economy in the summer is a strongly reliable predictor of political change in the November elections.

This fall will not the best time to be running for election or reelection as a Republican.

Karl Rove WILL have an "October Surprise" to try to limit that negative response. I wonder who we'll bomb in October.

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