Internal Iranian politics

Dick Cheney likes to think of himself as a strategic thinker in foreign affairs, one who thinks in terms of the American nation against other nations. Since Bush does not bother to thing at all on the subject, it is Cheney's view that matters. Cheney appears to think that the American nation is in an existential conflict with the Iranian nation. It isn't a question to Cheney of some leaders of one nation in conflict with some leaders of another. It is nation vs nation. This led to the invasion of Iraq, and before that, led to focus on creating the Anti-missile system in 2001 and essentially ignoring the threat of terrorist attacks on America. Cheney, and the Neocons he represents, thought that effective terrorist attacks could only happen if a nation-state initiated and paid for it. So we got the useless anti-missile system together with the very effective attacks on 9/11. [*]

Which brings us to Cheney's desire to attack Iran. Cheney fears that Iran wants the nuclear bomb in order to attack America. Give Iran the capability to attack and they will. Individuals don't mean much to Cheney.

Which is why Cheney will not believe that there is a really significant political split between internal power groups in Iran. For what may describe the facts that Cheney is overlooking, go look at the report by Steve Clemons. Consider - did Iran decide to kidnap the dozen British sailors, or was that a desperate measure by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to shore up their fading internal Iranian power position as former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjanigains power and current Iranian President Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (click on English) loses power. Go read it.

Consider first that the scenario Steve Clemons describes is indicated by Intelligence sources, but does not have sufficient confirmation at this time to be considered solid Intelligence. That will take a while to confirm or disconfirm. The key, though, is that there are political possibilities for dealing with Iran before we use military means.

Cheney and the NeoCons hate non-military solutions. They need to be restrained by wiser heads, which these days means by someone who is not a Republican.

---

Addendum
[*] EmptyWheel at The Next Hurrah provides a vignette that demonstrates the attitude that Cheney (and by extension, Bush) had at the beginning of the Bush administration before 9/11. Terrorism was not a problem. China and North Korea were problems, but not terrorism.

This story about Lynn Cheney's attitude confirms the story told by Richard Clarke in his book Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror. The downgrading of Richard Clarke as the specialist on Terrorism on the National Security Council that occurred almost immediately after Bush took over is a major example of the lack of preparation for terrorism.