Thursday, December 27, 2007

So who is suspected in Bhutto's assassination?

Jeremy Page, South Asia Correspondent for the Times online reviews who the most probable suspects are:
The main suspects in Benazir Bhutto’s assassination are the Pakistani and foreign Islamist militants who saw her as a heretic and an American stooge and had repeatedly threatened to kill her.

But fingers will also be pointed at Inter-Services Intelligence, the agency that has had close ties to the Islamists since the 1970s and has been used by successive Pakistani leaders to suppress political opposition.
Those are the groups. Page goes on to name likely individuals:
Earlier that month, [October] two militant warlords based in Pakistan's lawless northwestern areas, near the border with Afghanistan, had threatened to kill her on her return.

One was Baitullah Mehsud, a top commander fighting the Pakistani army in the tribal region of South Waziristan. He has close ties to al Qaeda and the Afghan Taleban.

The other was Haji Omar, the “amir” or leader of the Pakistani Taleban, who is also from South Waziristan and fought against the Soviets with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan.

After that attack Ms Bhutto revealed that she had received a letter signed by a person who claimed to be a friend of al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden threatening to slaughter her like a goat. [Snip]

Analysts say that President Musharraf himself is unlikely to have ordered her assassination, but that elements of the army and intelligence service would have stood to lose money and power if she had become Prime Minister.

The ISI, in particular, includes some Islamists who became radicalised while running the American-funded campaign against the Soviets in Afghanistan and remained fiercely opposed to Ms Bhutto on principle.

Saudi Arabia, which has strong influence in Pakistan, is also thought to frown on Ms Bhutto as being too secular and Westernised and to favour Nawaz Sharif, another former Prime Minister.
President Musharraf is going to have to quickly act to prevent Pakistan from devolving into Civil War. This action is also going to have severe effects on the legitimacy and public acceptance of the government formed after the January 8 election - assuming that the election is held at all.

Pakistan has just joined Afghanistan and Iraq as nations in real trouble internally.


Addendum 11:11 AM CST
Aryn Baker of Time Magazine reports:
Just days before parliamentary polls in Pakistan, leading Prime Ministerial contender and anti terrorism crusader Benazir Bhutto was shot dead during an election rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near Islamabad. "She has been martyred," said party official Rehman Malik. The Associated Press, citing Malik, reported that Bhutto was shot in the neck and the chest before the gunman blew himself up. At least 20 bystanders were killed in the blast. Bhutto was rushed to a hospital But, at 6:16 p.m. Pakistan time, she was declared dead.
So this was not just a bombing. It was an assassination with more than one method of killing Ms. Bhutto planned and executed.

Who was close enough to shoot her in the back of the head?


Addendum 2 11:24 AM CST
From the Guardian we get some further reports of how Benazir Bhutto was assassinated:
Bhutto was killed as her jeep pulled away from an election rally in Rawalpindi. Standing up in an open-top jeep, she presented a clear target.

Eyewitnesses spoke of hearing gunshots followed by a bomb blast. Bhutto's security adviser, Rehman Malik, said the former PM was shot in the chest and neck. Conflicting reports from Pakistan's interior ministry said Bhutto was killed by the suicide bomber's collision with her jeep. [Snip]

Malik, Bhutto's security adviser, questioned the adequacy of protection for Bhutto.

"We repeatedly informed the government to provide her proper security and appropriate equipment including jammers, but they paid no heed to our requests," he said. [Snip]

It appears the Musharraf government had been considering ways to strengthen her security, and it forced Bhutto's PPP to cancel a rally in Rawalpindi in November due to security fears.

Today's Rawalpindi rally only went ahead after hundreds of riot police had set up security checkpoints. Rawalpindi is a so-called garrison city and popularly regarded as one of the most secure cities in Pakistan.
The Hindu reports that Bhutto's security chief, Malik, had complained prefiously that the government provided faulty radion jammers on at least three occasions.
Rehman Malik, a Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader and Security Advisor to Bhutto, asked the Interior Ministry to provide "fault-free jammers along with a technician to ensure full protection" to her from any attempted attack.

This is the third time that the PPP has complained to the Interior Ministry about jammers provided to Bhutto being faulty. Bhutto survived a suicide bomb attack on her homecoming rally in Karachi on October 18 that killed 140 people.

In his letter to the Interior Secretary, Malik, a former Federal Investigation Agency chief, said: "I regret to inform that the jammers provided by Sindh Police to cover the movements of Benazir Bhutto on 23-12-2007 did not work, which is a serious lapse in the light of the serious security threat already conveyed to us by Brig Javed Iqbal Cheema, Director General, National Crisis Management Cell, Ministry of Interior."

"Similarly, the jammers provided for the protection of Benazir Bhutto during her trip to Rahimyar Khan on 24-12-2007 also failed to work, exposing (her) to a high risk."

Malik said the PPP had "made repeated requests for provision of proper fault-free jammers for the protection of Benazir Bhutto but in every trip the jammers have failed to work."
Jammers should make it more difficult for assassins to know where the target is. In this case it looks like both a gunman and a bomber knew where Benazir Bhurro was. If the police have failed three times to deliver working jammers, then the police appear implicated. Whoever ran security for the government should not have let that happen a second time unless he was complicit in this assassination.

If Rawalpindi, Pakistan, is considered a Garrison City and is the headquarters of the Army, then suspicion must also be directed at the Pakistani Army.

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