DES MOINES -- For three decades, the Republican presidential nominating contest has served to unify the national party's coalition of social, economic and foreign policy conservatives in advance of a general election fight with Democrats.It's been my opinion that the main thing that has unified the Wall-Street Republicans, the Foreign policy Republicans, the Evangelical Republicans and the Libertarian Republicans has been the opportunity they had to take advantage of the power of the Presidency once the Republican candidate took office. This time, though, there is very little prospect that the Republican candidate, whoever he is, can possibly win next November.
This year, it is ripping that coalition apart.
Is the GOP grounded in the social issues embodied by Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee or the foreign policy experience of former POW John McCain? Do Republicans see their futures in a former CEO such as Mitt Romney, who promises to tackle Washington incompetence, or in a leader such as Rudolph W. Giuliani, who talks tough on terrorism and crime? Should the party embrace anger about immigration or optimism about America's potential? [Snip]
Soul-searching during a presidential campaign is typical for the Democratic Party, which seems to engage in philosophical rethinking every four years. But it is a rarer instance for Republicans, who typically rally around an establishment candidate, a consensus "next-in-line" who would be a shoo-in for the nomination.
That kind of party discipline helped George H.W. Bush win the nomination in 1988, gave a boost to former Kansas senator Robert J. Dole in 1996 and was crucial to George W. Bush's victory in 2000. But finding a successor to President Bush, and a new direction for the party, is proving to be more difficult.
"I'm homeless," said Jack Kemp, a former congressman and housing secretary in President George H.W. Bush's administration and the party's vice presidential nominee in 1996. "There isn't that Reagan sense of optimism, of an inclusionary Republican Party."
"It's about as clear as mud," said Rep. Patrick T. McHenry (R-N.C.), who has talked to Giuliani and has met with Romney and former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) but remains undecided.
For conservatives, the flaws of each major candidate are just too glaring, GOP lawmakers say.
Giuliani tends to win them on economic issues, but they cannot get by his stand on social issues. They like Huckabee on the social agenda, but do not trust his economic stands. They like the Romney they see now, but they cannot forget the positions he once embraced in Massachusetts. And they dislike McCain's opposition to Bush's first-term tax cuts and his crusade to overhaul campaign finance laws.
"Everybody's looking for Ronald Reagan, and believe me, I knew Ronald Reagan, and he's not here," said Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.), who dropped out of the race for the White House on Thursday and gave his support to Romney. "We're seeing the manifestation of frustrations that have been in the Republican ranks for years. Frustration with the president, frustration with Congress, and nobody sees in us a way out."
Huckabee, in particular, is challenging the three-part coalition that Reagan built, but not only because of the unabashed focus on the former Arkansas governor's Christian faith. He is increasingly casting himself as the champion of "the people" against what he calls the "Wall Street-Washington axis." He said this past week that he wants to represent "Boys and Girls Clubs Republicans" not "country-club Republicans." [Snip]
The chairman of one of the presidential campaigns, a longtime party activist, said, after soliciting a promise of anonymity: "There is no party here anymore. It's just a shell."
Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has been at the top of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire for months, but his competitors have been a puzzle to many in the state. In early summer, an aura of expectation was created about Thompson's candidacy, but his initial appearances fell flat. Then Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, upped his television ads and personal appearances, but he has now canceled some events, cut back his ad spending and is no longer making a major effort.
That has allowed McCain, the Arizona senator, to restart the heavy schedule of town meetings and television ads he had curtailed when his campaign ran out of money early in the summer. Huckabee is thought to have a "low ceiling" in New Hampshire, where far fewer of the Republicans identify themselves as evangelical voters than do so in Iowa.
In Iowa, the race has largely narrowed to a two-man contest between Huckabee and Romney, with Thompson doing his best to surprise people with a strong third-place finish. McCain and Giuliani have all but abandoned any retail efforts in the state.
Party officials and strategists for the Iowa presidential candidates predict that about 80,000 people will participate in the party's caucuses, a drop from the 125,000 who participated in 2004. By contrast, some Democratic Party strategists expect to see as many as 150,000 Democrats gather the same night.
That lack of a real prospect for winning removes the glue that made the factions of the Republican Party swallow their pride and agree with the other factions. I think that lack of prospect of winning is what has really torn the national party apart.
Right now this looks good for the Democrats in November. Of course, if the Republicans get really desperate at the losses they face, that very desperation may drive them back into some semblance of unity before November. Could either McCain or Romney sell that? I don't know. As it is, November looks good for the Democrats. November is still a long ways off, though. So things look very murky right now.
But that's not too surprising, I guess, since not a single vote has been cast in the primaries yet. Things that look very murky right now may very well become completely clear on February 6, 2008.
I guess we'll see very soon.
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