Steven M. Teles writes on Mark A. R. Kleiman about the malaise felt by Republicans. They are likely to have fewer people knocking on doors to get turnout, and those they do find are likely to be less motivated and hence, less effective. That means both weak incumbents and potential opponents will know that turnout is not as likely to save the incumbent.
This is going to encourage weaker Republicans to retire, and better Democrats to enter the race to defeat the Republicans.
Teles postulates that there will be a tipping point at which these trends begin to make it look like the Democrats are going to retake the House, and he is looking for indicators that would demonstrate that such a tipping point was near or has occurred.
I think it is an interesting hypothesis, and I'll also be looking for such evidence.
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