Senate Races Summary to May 21, 2008

I've had a hard time visualizing whether it is likely that the Democrats will be able to get a 60 vote dominating position in the Senate, so I sat down and put this summary together. This is intended to provide a national view of the active Senate races for Dummies. I had thought there were 33 races this year until I started this table and learned that in Wyoming and Mississippi there are two Senate races each.

Here is the Wikipedia discussion of the U.S. Senate elections in 2008. It provides links to each incumbent's wikipedia report. The Wikipedia Summary lists by state Wikipedia lists the opponents for each seat, saving me the time and trouble. These tables are tedious, time-consuming and easy to make a mistake in.

Races are listed by party (D or R) if there is an incumbent. O indicates an open race with no incumbent running. For those races that are contentious, Rasmussen polls and keeps reasonabley up to date. I have linked to those state polls. Where the Poll column indicates N/A Rasmussen does not list any poll, and I haven't found another pollster who lists polls and regularly updates them.

01	Baucus, Max- (D - MT)	D	N/A
02	Biden, Joseph R., Jr.- (D - DE)	D	N/A
03	Durbin, Richard- (D - IL)	D	N/A
04	Harkin, Tom- (D - IA)	D	N/A
05	Johnson, Tim- (D - SD)	D	Rasmussen Polls
06	Kerry, John F.- (D - MA)	D	Rasmussen Polls
07	Landrieu, Mary L.- (D - LA)	D	N/A
08	Lautenberg, Frank R.- (D - NJ)	D	Rasmussen Polls
09	Levin, Carl- (D - MI)	D	Rasumssen Polls
10	Pryor, Mark L.- (D - AR)	D	N/A
11	Reed, Jack- (D - RI)	D	N/As
12	Rockefeller, John D., IV- (D - WV)	D	N/A
13	Alexander, Lamar- (R - TN)	R	Rasmussen Polls
14	Barrasso, John - (R -WY) *	R	N/A
15	Chambliss, Saxby- (R - GA)	R	Rasmussen Polls
16	Cochran, Thad - (R - MS) **	R	N/A
17	Coleman, Norm- (R - MN	R	Rasmussen Polls
18	Collins, Susan M.- (R - ME)	R	Rasmussen Polls
19	Cornyn, John- (R - TX)	R	Rasmussen Polls
20	Dole, Elizabeth- (R - NC)	R	Rasmussen Polls
21	Enzi, Michael B.- (R - WY)*	R	N/A
22	Graham, Lindsey- (R - SC)	R	N/A
23	Inhofe, James M.- (R - OK)	R	N/A
24	McConnell, Mitch- (R - KY)	R	Rasmussen Polls
25	Roberts, Pat- (R - KS)	R	Rasmussen Polls
26	Sessions, Jeff- (R - AL)	R	Rasmussen Polls
27	Smith, Gordon H.- (R - OR)	R	Rasmussen Polls
28	Stevens, Ted- (R - AK)	R	Rasmussen Polls
29	Sununu, John E.- (R - NH)	R	Rasmussen Polls
30	Wicker, Roger (R - MS) *	R	N/A
31	Allard, Wayne- (R - CO)	O	Rasmussen Polls
32	Craig, Larry E.- (R - ID)	O	N/A
33	Domenici, Pete V.- (R - NM)	O	Rasmussen Polls
34	Hagel, Chuck- (R - NE)	O	Rasmussen Polls
35	Warner, John- (R - VA)	O	Rasmussen Polls

* Wyoming - Because of the death of Senator Craig L. Thomas, the governor of Wyoming appointed John Barrasso to fill the seat until a special election in November 2008. Sen. Michael Enzi is up for normal reelection.

** Mississippi - Senator Trent Lott resigned at the end of 2007 to become a lobbyist, and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour (R) appointed Roger Wicker to fill his seat until the special election in November 2008. Sen. Wicker left his Congressional seat, which was won in a surprise upset by Democrat Travers Childers. Sen. Thad Cochran, the senior Senator from Mississippi is up for normal reelection.

Of the 12 Democrats running for reelection, only Mary Landrieu of Louisiana seems in jeopardy. Her last election was a squeaker, and the loss of Democrats in New Orleans may make it even more difficult for her.

Among the open seats, Mark Warner (D) is expected to take Virginia. Mark Udall has opened a strong lead over Republican Bob Schaffer. Mark's cousin, Tom Udall in New Mexico is strongly in the lead there. But in Nebraska, Mike Johanns (R) leads Scott Kleeb (D) by fifteen percentage points and Idaho will elect a Republican. So of those five open seats, Democrats are favored for three. Which leaves the Republican incumbents running for reelection.

Of the 18 Republican incumbents up for reelection, 6 appear strongly in the lead, 6 are in danger, and 6 more I simply don't know at this time. The ones in the lead are (13) Alexander, (15) Chamblis, (17) Coleman, (22) Graham, (25) Roberts, and (26) Sessions. The ones in danger are (18) Collins, (19) Cornyn, (20 )Dole, (24) McConnell, (28)Stevens, and (29) Sununu. Only Sununu seems at this time on the ropes. I don't have any information at all on the other 6 at this time.

Since the Democrats currently have 49 seats plus Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman voting for control of the Senate, that's 51. I expect three of the open seats and Sunnu's to go Democrat which adds four more for 55. So the Democrats need to keep Landrieu and gain five more seats out of the 17 the Republicans are defending besides Sununu's. Those are the seats, listed 13 through 30 above, that will determine the ability to control the Senate.