The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by just four percentage points, 47% to 43%.But Rasmussen also adds the Republican Senators in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Alaska to the list of vulnerable Republican Senators. Democrats in the Senate currently have 49 Democrats as well as Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman voting for them. That's 51. If Democrats run the table in 2008 - as they did all except Ford in Tennessee in 2006 - then there is a chance of having 58 Democratic Senators plus Sanders and (*Gag*) the untrustworthy Lieberman as of January 2009.
Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. That is especially true when a little known challenger is so competitive in an early general election match-up. The race for President in Texas is also fairly competitive early in Election 2008.
Then if America is very lucky and lightning or a plane crash strikes the right-wing Senator from Israel, Joe Lieberman ...
A guy can dream, can't he?
But also according to Rasmussen, Senator Libby Dole of North Carolina appears similarly vulnerable.
Democrat Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, easily won the Democratic Primary last Tuesday night and starts the general election campaign essentially tied with incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole.One thing that does not show up in the head-to-head polls of McCain vs Obama is the election machine that Obama has built up during the extended Democratic Primary season in all 50 states. In fact, both Hillary and Barack have built up 50 state organizations that are registering voters, collecting funds, and preparing for a truly massive get-out-the-vote operation.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina Hagan attracting 48% of the vote statewide while Dole earns support from 47%. A month ago, Dole led Hagan by thirteen percentage points.
Hagan currently leads by three points among women while Dole wins by three among men. Hagan leads among voters under 50 while Dole leads among older voters.
The competition between the two almost equally matched Democratic candidates for the nomination has done a lot more than just raise emotions. It has prepared the Democratic party to run a general election campaign the likes of which has never been seen before. McCain, unfortunately for him (but fortunately for America), has not had either the money needed for such an organization nor the competition to spur him to create it.
This promises to be a blow-out election, and the Republicans are limping sadly to the starting line with little in the way of organization and funding and a set of circumstances that has turned a large portion of the American voting population against them. With a failed and unnecessary war in Iraq, an economy which seems to be pausing only to decide which new set of problems to inflict on America and a philosophy that government can't do anything fro the American people in the face of economic and social problems, only the most irrational of the Republican cheerleaders are saying anything positive about their expectations for success in the general election in November.
That said, this is still over five months before the election in November. A lot can change in that time, and Republicans as well as Hillary Clinton are all praying that it will.
Right now, though, I'd say to them "Don't count on it." It looks like the Democrats will run the Legislative and Executive branches of the Federal government for the next four or so years, and the Democrats are the party of responsible and effective government, something America badly needs after the disaster of the conservative movement.