The prospects for Tom DeLay's reelection

Now that Tom DeLay has resigned as House Majority Leader he needs to focus on his own reelection as a member of Congress.

He is still in a strong Republican district south and west of Houston, but as a result of his own 2003 Texas redistricting to remove Democrats, he took in a number of Democratic voters that he had not faced in previous years. He won by 55% over an unknown Democrat who got only 41%. While this appears like a good advantage, any incumbent Congressman who gets only 55% of his district is considered to be threatened.

DeLay no longer has the power of being the House Majority Leader and will face serious scrutiny of any funds he does receive. He remains under indictment by the Austin, TX District Attorney, and will face trial in that purely Texas case sometime this Spring. DeLay's name has already surfaced rather frequently in the expanding Washington, D.C. investigation of Jack Abramoff, and two of his previous House aides (Tony C. Rudy and Michael Scanlon) have been indicted. Scanlon has pleaded guilty to some charges with the agreement to testify against certain at this time unknown others.

With these weakening factors in sight, Tom DeLay now faces three republican contenders, Pat Baig, Tom Campbell and Michael Fjetland, in the March 7th Republican Primary. Baig is a former teacher and political novice and Fjetland has run against DeLay previously and been defeated. Both are poorly financed. Campbell, however, is a conservative attorney who worked for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the administration of Bush I. He apparently does not have much organized local support, though. DeLay will probably defeat all three. If there is a run-off DeLay is in real trouble.

DeLay also faces another Republican, Steve Stockman, who expects to run as an independent. This will require that he get a petition of nearly 5,000 voters who do not vote in any primary on March 7, he will be competing with a Libertarian candidate and perhaps another independent for those signatures. Stockman was a Congressman previously defeated by Nick Lampson, but there is concern that if he makes it into the race he will pull votes from DeLay. He is a conservative crackpot who embarrassed even other Republicans as a Congressman, so he is no threat to Lampson.

Then DeLay faces the Democratic ex-congressman, Nick Lampson, from the next door Texas district 2 who was defeated in 2004 as a result of DeLay's Texas redistricting in 2003. Many of the new Democrats on Galveston Island and in Southern Houston came from Lampson's previous district and Lampson will be well-financed. He will be the hardest for DeLay to defeat. He faces no opposition in the March 7th Democratic Primary.

Republican strategists confidently predict that the district is so thoroughly Republican that DeLay will be reelected. Democratic strategists seem strangely silent. Several political scientists have expressed doubts that DeLay will still be running for reelection by November.

All in all, Tom DeLay is in rough water as he aims for reelection. The sharks smell blood in the water which explains all the potential competitors at this time.

My personal bet at this time is that he has about a 50 - 50 chance to survive long enough be reelected. Much will depend on the news out of Washington D.C. and what Abramoff and Scanlon have to tell the prosecutors. It is definitely an election worth watching.