Ruy Teixeira at The Emerging Democratic Majority makes the point that even with the unfavorable climate for Republicans this year, it is not likely that they will lose control of either the House or Senate this year. He refers to Charlie Cook, who points out that about 80% of incumbent Senators are reelected, While the reelection rate for members of the House is about 95%.
That means that likely turnovers generally occur only in open seats. Democrats need to pick up 6 Senate seats and 15 seats in the House to take control of either body. Only three Senators looked vulnerable in January (Frist is not running, but Tennessee leans Republican) while there are 21 open seats in the House (14 Republican and 7 Democrat.) Democrats need to pick up almost all the vulnerable Republican seats and lose none of the vulmerable Democratic seats to get control of the House.
This isn't impossible, but it is unlikely. The possibilities of a number of GOP House members being indicted before the election may change this, but if it is like Randy "Duke" Cunningham that seat will probably remain in Republican hands.
I have hopes for one of the bodies of Congress going Democratic, but that is merely a hope. It is pretty unlikely at the moment. While the Repu8blicans may find a number of their House members indicted this year, most people will lambaste the Congress but strongly support their own Congressman/Senator.
At best, I strongly suspect that the Congressional elections will come down to a cliffhanger.
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