Tom DeLay's district 22 a possible 2006 Democratic win

This is from The Emerging Democratic Majority (Ruy Teixeira) and based on the New Republic Online (subscription required.)

"[...]senior editor John Judis [New Republic] argues that changing demographics and a growing number of Republicans disenchanted with DeLay's ethics problems and his pandering to religious extremists give Democrats a solid shot at winning DeLay's house seat in '06. Judis, co-author with Ruy Teixeira of The Emerging Democratic Majority, describes the dynamics of DeLay's district:

"DeLay's 22nd district, which he designed in a 2003 redistricting effort that aimed to net seven more Republican seats in Texas, has also begun to change in ways that will not benefit an outspoken Christian conservative like himself. When DeLay first won office, the district was predominately white, with a few pockets of black voters. Because the area's population has ballooned 18 percent since the 2000 census, there are no dependable figures about the district's overall composition, but both Republican and Democratic leaders agree that, without losing its high levels of wealth and education, it is becoming a "majority-minority" district, in which whites are outnumbered by other ethnic groups. Latinos and blacks moved into the district in the late '80s. And, in the '90s, middle-class Indians, Pakistanis, Vietnamese, and Chinese immigrants began to pour in. Two Hindu temples now vie for attention with the Baptist megachurches. Extrapolating from the census would put the African American population at about 10 percent, Latinos at over 20 percent, and the Asian population at close to 15 percent. The results in Fort Bend County are even more dramatic. In 1980, the area's public schools, which attract all the area's children, were 64 percent white, 16 percent black, 17 percent Latino, and 3 percent Asian. Today, they are 29 percent white, 31 percent black, 21 percent Latino, and 19 percent Asian."

"Judis notes that DeLay received only 55 percent of the vote in his district in 2004 after outspending his relatively unknown Democratic opponent 5-1. The politics of demographic reallighnment in the 22nd offer hope that Delay's excesses will translate into a Democratic 22nd district:

As Judis points out:"Most of the black and Latino voters are Democrats...But the Asian vote is more complex. The Indians are the most Democratic. The Pakistanis used to be Republican, but, along with other American Muslims, turned to the Democrats in the face of anti-Arab and anti-Muslim sentiment after September 11. The Vietnamese and Chinese were also initially Republicans, but have become increasingly receptive to Democratic support for civil rights."

If you put the district's disillusioned white professionals together with a majority of the Asians and large majorities of blacks and Latinos, you get a coalition that could unseat DeLay and, over the long run, perhaps, lay the basis for a Democratic resurgence in the area."

I previously wrote about about Nick Lampson to run against Tom DeLay on the excellent blog about Texas Politics, Come and Take it.

Nick Lampson is a four term Democratic Congressman who was defeated for reelection because of the Congressional redistricting Tom DeLay instigated and paid for. While I really think Richard Morrison earned a rematch, his personal problems are such that he would be a weaker candidate than a previous four-term Congressman.

Either way, I think that Tom DeLay is in real trouble in 2006. A defeat of Tom DeLay wil be a major asset to both America and Texas. Putting him in prison would be better, but I'll have to trust Ronnie Earle to do that.