Wednesday, May 16, 2007

A small insight from research into free will in insects

Free Will. What is it?
"Free will is essentially an oxymoron — we would not consider it 'will' if it were completely random and we would not consider it 'free' if it were entirely determined," Brembs said. In other words, nobody would ascribe responsibility to one's actions if they were entirely the result of random coincidence. On the other hand, if one's actions were completely determined by outside factors such that no alternative existed, no one would hold that person responsible for them.

"We speculate that if free will exists, it is in this middle ground" between randomness and determinism "that is currently not well understood or characterized," said mathematical biologist George Sugihara at the University of California at San Diego.
MSNBC reports on a study on free will in fruit flies. The study suggests that even fruit flies have a certain degree of free will.

This is an interesting piece of research, mostly for what it tells us what is wrong in our beliefs I think. Even insects apparently cannot be programmed rigidly and be expected to survive. Next question - what is the mechanism by which such apparent aspects of free will work in the brain?

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Republicans have only the Iraq War to run on.

Gene Healy looks at some more polling. The only issue the Republican core considers of importance is the war in iraq. That's why all the Republican candidates for the Presidential nomination support the war in Iraq. The Republican base has become reduced to the militarists.

(h/t to Glenn Greenwald in item 3 of his post.)

Taunts from a "Christian" Terrorist

The Bush administration and American conservatives generally keep trying to make the point that the GWOT (Global War on Terror) against the so-called "Islamofascist Terrorists" is the new world war, on par with and more dangerous than the Cold War with the USSR and Soviet Communism.

Really?

How is Osama bin Laden any different from the Fundamentalist "Christian" organization called "the Army of God" which sends out terrorists to kill because the rest of America will not accept their demands that abortions be criminalized? Cliff Schecter points out how one of "the Army of God's" anointed terrorists taunts his victims from his federal prison cell. Several points need to be made to counter the propaganda and misinformation put out by the Bush administration, by the conservatives, and by the Republican political media led by FOX TV "news."

America is not involved in "World War IV." The "West" is not fighting a unified Islamic enemy. There is no "unified Terrorist enemy!" And terrorism is a tactic used by small groups who are trying to disrupt a state, but it is a tactic used by bandit forces rather than by armies.

Fighting bandits and pirates has been a constant problem for nations for centuries, but it is not war. When the early American government put down Shays Rebellion and the Whiskey Rebellion, they were not fighting against armies. They were using the military to dispatch rioters or their equivalent.

OK. Eric Rudolph set bombs to support the Army of God in its fight against abortion. He was a terrorist, but he was not a soldier. Of course, Rudolph was not as successful by the standards of body count as another American terrorist, Timothy McVeigh, either. Both were terrorists, however, and neither was Islamic. Neither were soldiers, and neither was involved in a real war. Mohammed Atta was a terrorist, and when evaluated by body count, he was a lot more successful than either Eric Rudolph or Timothy McVeigh. Atta was not a soldier either, however. He was just another terrorist - a violent bandit - who happened onto a tactic that was unusually successful in killing a large number of people.

There are terrorist organizations around the world. In fact there are quite a few. The U.S. State Department puts out a list of known terrorist organizations by country which can be reviewed here. There are also National Liberation organizations that use terrorist tactics. They range from Communist to right-wing organizations, and would include the liberation fighters in Nicaragua, which were supported by Ronald Reagan and Oliver North.

Wikipedia offers a much more comprehensive (but less reliable) "List of non-governmental organizations accused of using terrorism." The list of categories of such organizations is interesting.
  1. Religious terrorists
  2. Nationalistic terrorist organizations
  3. Anarchist
  4. Leftist, Communist, Leninist, Trotskyst, Maoist and Marxist
  5. Ethnic terrorists (including neo-Nazis and white-supremacists)
  6. Anti-Communists
  7. Cuban exile groups
  8. Issue-specific
  9. Others
  10. See also
The variety of types of organizations using the tactic of terrorism is rather surprising.

So why are the American right-wing propagandists (including the Bush administration and FOX "News") working so hard to emphasize the religious aspects of Middle East terrorism? I have to conclude that it is much easier to justify a preemptive war started by America on religious grounds than on political ones.

Armies are not very good at chasing down bandits. Ask Black Jack Pershing after he came back from his fruitless effort to chase down Pancho Villa in Mexico before WW I. But increased Intelligence and Special Operations efforts are covered by classification and don't get much Press, except when they fail. Successes remain classified. So how does a right-wing politician look tough without sending in another division? He doesn't.

Defining the battle against those who attacked America as Islamo-fascist terrorists allows the right-wingers to blame all Muslims. That fits their racial prejudices as well as making the problem into a religious one. It justifies turning America into an Armed Camp and making everyone afraid, so that those who fear can elect the right-wingers.

The fact is Eric Rudolph and the conservative right-wingers like Rudolph Gulianni are very similar. They need each other, and they react to social problems similarly. Pass a law against what they oppose and set up a police force to enforce that law without exceptions. Remove all limitations on how the people being investigates are treated, and don't worry too much if a few innocents get hurt in the process. Both Eric Rudolph and Rudolph Gulianni sell themselves as being tough on the "bad guys." The real difference is that Eric Rudolph was using violence to try to change the law, while Rudolph Gulianni would prefer to change the law first, then use it to justify violence.

Those of us on the outside of this system need to remember - just don't ask either Eric or Rudy who the "bad guys" are. You'll quickly find yourself on their list, just for questioning them. The "bad guys" are their enemies, not our enemies. Remember that and watch your back - and watch for abandoned packs in public places.

Monday, May 14, 2007

What is happening with the investigation into firing of Carol Lam, USA San Diego?

Josh Marshall explains the real problems with the firing of Carol lam, the U.S. Attorney in San Diego, CA while she was investigating a corruption case related to the Abramoff case that includes a Congressman, the House Appropriations Committee, high level CIA officers and high level civilians in the Department of Defense.



Josh explains why the firing was at the direction of President Bush.

Stupidity in action again - America in Iraq

Let's see. In Iraq the insurgents are hiring today, and working to get the American occupiers out of their country. In the meantime, the American Republican free marketers don't want to reopen the old state-run Iraqi industries because that runs counter to the grand idea of creating Iraq as a free market economy someday far in the future -- maybe. So the unemployed workers have the choice of not working, or joining the fight to get the Americans out of Iraq. It seems reasonable that if a lot more Iraqis were working, they wouldn't want to join the insurgents, doesn't it?

So when Paul Brinkley, a deputy undersecretary of defense, started to reopen Iraqi state-run industries to hire Iraqis and allow them to earn a living to support their families, the State Department has gone up in arms. Americans should not rehabilitate the Iraqi industries because that opposes the Utopian free market ideology ideas that America should be installing promoting encouraging in Iraq for some future utopia there.

I guess the idea is that we shouldn't offer beans-and-rice to eat today because then the Iraqis won't be encouraged to work for the glorious feast they might prepare next week or so.

[From Think Progress.]

WaPo is catching up on firings of US attorneys.

The Washington Post is beginning to report on the fact that a number of the fired U.S. Attorneys in 2006 were fired because they were targets of complaints that they were insufficiently active in bringing cases against people for voter fraud to court. Of course, the fired U.S. Attorneys have all pointed out that there were no cases strong enough to win a conviction for them to bring to court. The evidence just didn't support the Republican complaints. So in essence the White House (Karl rove) was firing U.S Attorneys and replacing them with hacks to try to get less ethical U.S. Attorneys in office before the next election.

It's nice to see that the Washington Post is reading Talking points Memo and TPM Muckraker and now, months later, trying to catch up on some of the reporting the TPM people have been doing since at least January 2007.

Sunday, May 13, 2007

Bush misunderstands the Presidency - Congressional leaders properly mistrustful of Bush.

Michael Abramowitz of the Washington Post has an excellent article today about the relations between the White House and Capital Hill. He provides the detail, but from that detail I'd draw the conclusion that neither trusts the other much at all.

I find that unsurprising. The White House does not understand how large organizations make and implement major decisions. For anyone who wants a very good explanation of organizational decision-making I STRONGLY suggest reading the classic Essence of Decision. It is about organizational decision-making, using the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example. Read it and you will never look at "idiotic" organizational decisions the same way.

Let me offer a thumbnail description of the process of strategic decision making for large organizations. The problem of a strategy involves not one, but a whole series of decisions. I'll ignore the problem of actually making an extremely complex decision by human beings who are physically incapable of dealing with more than about seven variables at any one time. For that I will refer you to Herbert A. Simon's concept of Bounded Rationality and Satisficing. The book mentioned above, "Essence of Decision," is largely a very readable example of how real decisions are made under the limitations of bounded rationality.

Strategic Decision Making.

The first decision for a strategic decision makers has to be to decide what goal is to be accomplished. The second decision then naturally flows from the first. How should the goal to be accomplished and what resources (people, money, capital goods, infrastructure, etc.) will be used to accomplish that goal. This seems nice and linear at first. Decide on the goal, then decide how to get there. But the big snag quickly raises its head. Some goals require unavailable resources. They may not exist (colony on the moon or mars,) the resources just may not be available (health care for the masses in extremely poor countries) or they may be being used for other, higher priority purposes (fighting a war rather than providing universal health care.) A lot of the impediments to achieving the goal do not appear until the effort to implement it starts. So what happens then?

The goal decision has to be reopened. Either the goal is abandoned, or it is changed. Then the implementation decisions of how to accomplish the revised goal and what resources are to be used have to be revisited. This iteration may occur several times until hopefully, the goal and implementation decisions are workable and agreed on.

The Goal and Implementation Decisions for Business.

Let's go back and look at the goal decision first. A business has a (relatively) easy job making the goal decisions. The job of a business is to manage a social and economic process so that the cost of the resources used are less than the revenue produced by selling the output of that process. It is relatively easy compared to decisions made by government because a business needs to be responsive only to those potential customers who want those results and to the needs of the process of obtaining and procesing raw materials and selling the output. Anyone who cannot afford the output of the business is simply ignored.

All business goals are based on this idea. A business works ONLY for its customers and potential customers, and IGNORES everyone else. The concept of a free market suggests that those ignored customers may become a market for other businesses, but many people will never become customers. Only people WITH MONEY are customers. [And yes, I am ignoring the problem of externalized costs at this time. Dumping waste into the river rather than dealing with the increased cost of properly disposing of waste is a social problem that businesses work hard to ignore.]

The Goal and Implementation Decisions for Government.

A government does not have the luxury of ignoring whole groups of people when it establishes its goals. A successful government controls (or is expected to control) a specific, defined area of land and is responsible for what people do there and for what is done to them.

With the development of the twentieth century concept of citizenship, the various governments also have become responsible for the care and behavior of individual citizens outside the national boundaries, although this is a limited function. The government of a specific territory always has primary jurisdiction unless the foreigner comes from a nation whose government has negotiated or enforces an immunity for its citizens from the powers of the local government. This is rare, because it is an admission by the less powerful government that it is not strong enough to fend for itself. The legal position of contractors in Iraq has been such a form of immunity for foreigners provided by more powerful nations such as USA and Great Britain.

So a government that governs fairly cannot do so by simply governing for certain powerful groups of people and ignoring the rest - not that they don't try. That is the major reason why industrial nations sooner or later become democracies. Government has one set of problems to solve, businesses another, and traditionally, religions have even another. The real genius of the U.S. Constitutional system of democracy includes the fact that each of those three sets of powers have their own specific realms in which the other powers tread only to protect the overall system, and then very cautiously. The fourth realm of independence was provided by the Bill of Rights to the individual people. This is at least as important as the first three, but individuals without the power of democracy generally have only the methods of riots and revolt with which to make their needs known.

The Social System of Developed Industrial Countries in more Depth.

The purpose of the entire national social system is to provide the very best life possible for every individual. Each of the powerful realms, Religion, Government and Business, has its function to best provide such lives for every individual. Only government has functions that infringe on the independence of the others, and this power to infringe comes with a much greater set of legal restrictions and with the requirement that secrecy be sharply limited unless it is absolutely necessary.

The government sets and enforces the laws and is itself tightly regulated by them. The independent judiciary is needed to evaluate individual cases for compliance with laws under the Rule of Law. For this system to work, no one can be above the power of the law, including all members of the government. But let's look at what each of what I am calling the realms of power contributes to the nation, and what limitations each should face. Then, remember that all of this is in support of the best, most free, and most productive lives of the individuals who make up this nation. Ultimately, the people is why the rest are allowed to exist.
  • The purpose of the religious realm is to help individuals to understand and belong to their position in the Universe, or in a different set of words, to understand their relationship to the Divine. Religion offers insight into the mysteries of life and the unknown. It offers an educational function. Religion cannot be allowed to misuse people generally, and to this extent government must intrude on the functions of religious organizations. , but cannot be trusted with the legal powers of law, police and judiciary. These are all functions of government. The main thing that religion needs from government is to be left alone.
  • The purpose of the business realm is to take in raw materials, process them to add value (including both processing and distributing them), then then sell them to customers who have the money to buy them. A business manages the process that it puts the raw materials through, but needs no power beyond that required to acquire raw materials, capital goods, and to hire labor. Every business requires enforceable contracts and a well-managed currency. Like religion, business cannot be trusted with the legal powers of law, police or judiciary, so the enforcement of contracts is farmed out to government. Similarly, a reliable currency is required for all businesses to operate effectively. This is another function that must be performed by government, and since the banks create most of the money supply through the lending function, the government must also regulate banks to a much greater extent than most other businesses. In a related function, business cannot function effectively without a good understanding of what the other businesses are doing, This is especially true for banks and financial institutions. Allowing other businesses to conduct this without some regulation gives too much power to competitors, so this is another function of government.
  • The purpose of the government realm is to protect the people (all of them, regardless of the money they have. Government cannot exclude certain groups from its benefits and controls for greater efficiency the way businesses and religions can), religions and businesses from outsiders who ignore the rules. Government also collects system-wide information and applies it to the problems of state rule enforcement. The law enforcement function belongs to well-regulated government organizations. We give government the sole right to use force on individuals to make them comply with laws, and then limit to individuals and government organizations to a specific set of situations in which they can use such power. The independent judiciary has the final approval of such actions.
  • People in general make up all of the three realms I have described. The purpose of government is to protect individuals from each other and from predations by religion, business, government and outsiders. Where possible and cost-effective, government also works to make individuals more useful to society. Most importantly, this means helping families to rear their children and to socialize them into American society so that they can function productively. Again, government must have a monopoly of force and there has to be an independent judiciary which passes judgement (within the Rule of Law) on apparent infractions of the law while limiting the effective power of religion, government and businesses.
Let me point out again that the above "realms of independence" work only if there is an effective Rule of Law and an independent judiciary in place to enforce it. None of the rest of the system works without the Rule of Law and its effective enforcement. The independent judiciary is absolutely critical to ensure that each case in which two parties have a conflict in which the law is to be applied have a fair and independent organization which will determine the facts, apply the law, and make a judgement. This allows both consistent and fair application of the law. It also exposes individual cases in which existing law is a bad law, and either applies the Common Law or provides the legislature with the information needed to revise the law.

So Why do the White House and Capital Hill Face Each Other with Distrust?

Bush is a business manager. Business decisions properly make a fetish decisions geared towards greater efficiency Efficiency can be best achieved by standardizing products and ignoring, even rejecting, large elements of customer demand. This allows long production runs that minimize costs. The easiest way to be allowed to produce a few very low costs models of any product is to operate a monopoly. Cost can be minimized while revenue will be higher than if there are competitors.

The second best solution for business is to have a few very large businesses who agree to split up the market. This often happens in a mature market. Businesses in such a mature market rarely provide new products or a large variety of models unless challenged by competitors. Frequently it is easier to deal with competitors in a mature or declining market by mergers or buying them out. Such mergers invariably lead to higher cost products, while every step away from monopoly makes achieving low cost through greater efficiency more difficult for the business. Government needs to prevent these mergers, because the closer a business comes to being a monopoly the fewer new products and services it provides, and the higher the price it charges. electric power utilities are an excellent example, as are phone companies. Privately owned and operated toll roads will soon prove to be similar disasters.

Businesses also supposedly react quickly to changes in markets. Such changes require an individual decision-maker with a free hand to be effective and even then often don't work. Still, that business model is better than committee decisions. But this leads to a particular socialization of business managers as they grow in their profession.

As business mangers get promoted in American business they tend to specialize. That limits to kind of decisions they are good at, but they supposedly get better and better at making those decisions - as long as the circumstances in which the decisions are made do not change rapidly. Such managers often know their speciality quite well, but they tend to be weak strategic managers. They make decisions based on limited information and their experience in the past about customers and goals and then focus on the most efficient implementation of those decisions - no matter who is hurt in that implementation. Efficiency becomes the primary attitude that leads to the implementation of decisions. Such managers are not trained to gather information on new and unusual situation, and they are discouraged from being curious outside their speciality. It's not efficient. So they don't deal well with new or sharply changed situations. Usually they try to find someone to hand such decisions off to. George W. Bush is this kind of manager.

The Constitutional Structure of American Government.

At the social and strategic levels, goals are more important than efficient implementation. Government cannot limit itself to a restricted set of customers, so efficiency in any one area tends to leave out a great many people who need government services. Setting goals requires a lot of information of various types from a variety of people. The U.S. Constitution sets up the Congress to represent the people and gather the information regarding what People, Families, Businesses and Religions need from government. The term "Represent" means to know the issues of importance to a variety of people and organizations and to bring this variety to bear on developing the goals of overall government.

The Legislature gathers that information and runs it through competitive pressures and power mechanisms to develop the national goals. Part of gathering that information is holding public hearings on various aspects of government and society. This informs the goal making process while also educating the population about what is happening in society. Once the goals are established, they are then given over to the Executive Department for implementation. The Executive Department does not have the sources of information nor does it have in place the needed procedures to make broad goal decisions for the government. Instead it has the single President and a hierarchical organization that is designed to make implementation of the goals easier once those goals have been provided by Congress.

So the only decisions which the President makes are those of implementing the goals given by Congress, and coordinating the use of the resources the Congress supplies. Congress establishes the goals and the priorities of those goals.

The President also has the limited function of making short term decisions to deal with rapidly changing situations, subject to the approval of Congress. The President also knows of should know what resources and abilities the government has to work with, so he provides information regarding the government's capabilities to Congress for them to use in formulating or reformulating goals. He also reports on the status of goal achievement to the Congress and the people at least once each year.

The Distrust between Capital Hill and the White House.

The distrust between the White House and Capital Hill is based on Bush's misunderstanding of the limitations of his goal formulation power. He has very little, but he wants to take on a great deal more. Yet he has neither the ability nor the Constitutional power to take on such extended duties.

His efforts to implement the so-called "Unitary Executive" are nothing more than an attempt to take the executive back to the forms of power practiced by Kings when the theory was the "Divine Right of Kings." Such power was done away with by every industrializing country as soon as it was realized that the government were too inefficient to run competitive business organizations. The U.S. Constitution was written at a time when it was realized that government was best run by a representative Parliament or Legislature, and America has been greatly blessed by this structure. George W. Bush, having never had a job as an independent manager unless someone brought him into the business for his name and connections, does not understand his own limitations or those of the Constitution.

The Democratic Constitutional leaders recognize this, and do not trust Bush, nor do the Democrats react as he expects to his assumption of powers that go beyond those allowed and expected under the Constitution and by American tradition. The previous Republican leaders of Congress were Right-Wing Authoritarian in personality, so they allowed Bush to take excessive leeway and they failed to do the job Congress is needed to do.

The change from the compliance of the Republican leaders to the distrust exhibited by the current Democratic leaders has rather shocked Bush, and he doesn't understand where he stands with respect to Congress now. Since he recognizes the distrust from the Democrats he similarly distrusts them.

So that is the source of the conflict right now that was described in Michael Abramowitz' article.


Comments, criticisms and links would all be greatly appreciated. I am trying to get this information into an article short enough to read, and still make it flow easily so that my point is made. I also learn more from dealing with disagreement than I do from agreement, so don't hesitate to offer criticism.

Ran another election yesterday.

No postings yesterday. Had to run a local precinct for city elections. Up at 5:00 AM, home at 9:00 PM and in bed by 9:15 PM. Not particularly contentious, but still had to be done.

Friday, May 11, 2007

CIA official, contractor, face new corruption indictments

The previous number three official at the CIA, "Dusty" Foggo, and the contractor, Brent Wilkes, who allegedly bribed him to arrange a $100,000,000 contract are facing new indictments on thirty charges of fraud, conspiracy and money laundering. From the Sacramento Bee:
According to the new indictment, Foggo provided Wilkes with "sensitive, internal information related to our national security," including classified information, to help him prepare proposals for providing undercover flights for the CIA under the guise of a civil aviation company and armored vehicles for agency operations. Foggo allegedly then pushed his CIA colleagues to hire Wilkes' companies without disclosing their longstanding friendship.

In a June 2005 e-mail to the head of CIA air operations quoted in the indictment, Foggo offered to "use some 'EXDIR grease'" on Wilkes' behalf - apparently a reference to his title as the agency's executive director.

Prosecutors say that in return, Wilkes offered to hire Foggo after he retired from government service. In the meantime, he allegedly treated his friend to a Scottish golf trip during which they racked up a $44,000 hotel bill at the luxurious Pitcastle Estate.

Details in the indictment show that the arrangement between the two men began deteriorating in the summer of 2005, as the federal investigation into Cunningham began to envelop Wilkes. Foggo, who hosted a lunch in the CIA dining room for Wilkes in February of that year, allegedly instructed a CIA employee not to hire his friend after federal agents raided Wilkes Corp. offices in August.
This grew out of the Abramoff corruption investigations, and may well have been the reason why the U.S. Attorney for San Diego, Carol Lam, was fired. These new indictments replace the indictments filed by Carol Lam two days before she was forced to leave her job by the Department of Justice.

Goodling to testify - immunity approved

Monica Goodling has received the immunity her attorneys were requesting before she would testify before Congress about the firing of the U.S. Attorneys.
Congress agreed to the deal, Justice Department investigators reluctantly agreed not to not oppose it and U.S. District Judge Thomas Hogan gave it final approval Friday.

"Monica Goodling may not refuse to testify," Hogan began his brief order, which said that Goodling could not be prosecuted for anything other than perjury in connection with her testimony.

Lawmakers want to question Goodling as part of an inquiry into whether the Justice Department played politics with the hiring and firing of department officials.
Goodling, as liaison between the White House and the Department of Justice, is in a unique position to know whether Rove was involved in the firings and if so, to what extent.

This should be interesting.

Why is the press reporting the Iraq War so negatively?

Borzou Daragahi, the former L.A. Times Baghdad Bureau Chief, gives his view to Editor and Publisher:
-- On charges that the press is too negative on Iraq:

Well, I would just say, show me those goods.

For example, is infant mortality going down? Is the number of attacks on U.S. and coalition forces going down?
Are the number of Iraqis who are fleeing the country declining? Is there an increase in employment? So, let’s see the facts.

Is there a decrease in the number of U.S. soldiers and Iraqi civilians being killed day to day? If there is, we’ve reported it. I mean, if there has been – and we put it prominently on page one.

I remember when the recent Baghdad security plan first went into effect, and there was a dramatic decline in the number of sectarian death squad executions, that was on the front page of the “Los Angeles Times.”

So, I think that the people who say that criticism should at least read our product first.
When asked what he thought of the war when it started:
I think that in the beginning, I was conflicted as to whether I was – because I had the Kurdish perspective up there, you know. And you don’t fully adopt the perspective of the people that you’re covering. You can’t do that as a journalist. But you’re at least sympathetic to it.

And from the Kurdish point of view, they were very much in favor of the war. They very much viewed it as a liberation. And that was rather infectious.

And so, I can’t say that I was like completely against the invasion. I took a neutral, wait-and-see attitude....

Sort of what it’s turned into in the eyes of many people in the Middle East is a war of imperial conquest gone bad, done poorly. At least the Romans granted their captives citizenship and brought them into the fold and brought stability to the lands that they conquered.

And I think, in the Arab world – and this is a really disastrous thing, they basically view this is as, you know, the Americans came in and they destroyed an Arab country. And I don’t think they’ll ever forgive us for that.
The real question for Americans is whether the continued expenditure of American lives and treasure has any chance of succeeding. Why won't the "surge" work?

"Because there is not - even according to General Petraeus' own guidebook for fighting counterinsurgencies, they're not using soldiers, they're not using enough troops to accomplish their goals...But also, more fundamentally, I don't think that they can do this militarily. I don't think the fundamental problems in Iraq right now are military problems."
Obviously I am publishing this because he is saying what I already think is true. But he isn't saying it to please me. He is saying this because his reporting has led him to believe it. The People who disagree with him do not have similar reports from relatively disinterested reporters to back up their disagreements. They make assertions without facts or reporting to back up those assertions.

The failure in Iraq is in some ways similar to the failure in Viet Nam. first, the American military has been trained, equipped and staffed to fight a war against other armies. In both Viet Nam and in Iraq they have been sent in to conduct an occupation and counterinsurgency operations. Our leaders in both cases called it a war, but it mostly wasn't in viet Nam and it isn't today.

In both cases, our military has adapted as well as it could. But an occupation and counterinsurgency is more political than military. Our American leaders failed to recognize this, and failed completely to conduct the necessary political activities that could lead to success.

They also failed to conduct the management activities required. There is today no real political conception of what it means for America to "win" in Iraq. Without such an idea, an image of what success would look like as it were, there is little or nothing that the large groups of people we have placed in Iraq to work to succeed.

A strategy is a desired end-state together with the resources and coordination needed to achieve that end-state. The desired end-state is known to be political in nature, and is similarly known to be unachievable through purely military means. Worse, the desired end-state requires the good-will and efforts of the people of Iraq and more broadly of the Arabic people. That good-will was lost by 2004, and by now cannot be regained in less than a generation at a minimum.

So to answer the question with which I titled this article, the Press has been reporting the Iraq War negatively because there is little or no possible positive outcome. There may be positive things happening in Iraq and the Middle East but they are irrelevant to any form of success that America could hang its hat on before leaving.

So all we will see is negative reporting, until somehow we get the positive news that our troops are leaving the killing sands of the Middle East desert. The answer is just that simple.

Heard it through the Grapevine - Amy Winehouse & Paul Weller

Good solid guitar, superb singing.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

DoJ and White House withholding letters and emails

Murray Weiss reports that Kyle Sampson drafted and sent letters to the Senate that left out Karl Rove's part in replacing Arkansas U.S. Attorney Bud Cummings with his aide and protege, Timothy Griffin.
"But an earlier e-mail from Sampson to Oprison" [an associate White House counsel] "that has already been made public indicates that the two men discussed Rove and then-White House Counsel Harriet Miers as being at the forefront of Griffin's nomination."
There are also other emails and documents that the White House is withholding from Congress.
Several of the e-mails that the Bush administration is withholding from Congress, as well as papers from the White House counsel's office describing other withheld documents, were made available to National Journal by a senior executive branch official, who said that the administration has inappropriately kept many of them from Congress.

The senior official said that Gonzales, in preparing for testimony before Congress, has personally reviewed the withheld records and has a responsibility to make public any information he has about efforts by his former chief of staff, other department aides, and White House officials to conceal Rove's role.

"If [Gonzales] didn't know everything that was going on when it went down, that is one thing," this official said. "But he knows and understands chapter and verse. If there was an effort within Justice and the White House to mislead Congress, it is his duty to disclose that to Congress. As the country's chief law enforcement official, he has a higher duty to disclose than to protect himself or the administration."
[editor - highlighting is mine.]
The item highlighted above is confirmation of my earlier assertion that Al Gonzales has been playing a role. He knows everything that has happened and why, and his statements to the contrary are the equivalent of the small child standing next to the broken cookie jar looking up and saying "What? I don't know how that happened." Gonzales is playing his role to protect the White House.


Some of my prior discussions of Alberto Gonzales' testimony can be found here, here and here.

Prior reports by Murray Waas reported in the National Journal can be found here.

Repubs to Bush - Iraq cannot continue without change

The Congressional Republicans are looking at the 2008 election and recognize that the biggest single problem they have sits in the White House as President. Think Progress has two articles, first on what they are saying publicly and second on what they are telling President Bush in his office.

The likely results of the 2008 election do not look at all pleasant to the Republicans. I heartily doubt that the Republicans see Bush's stubbornness and refusal to change course as being "steadfast" anymore.

What Alberto Gonzales has to deal with in testimony today

Josh Marshall brings together a lot of recent news about how many U.S. Attorneys have actually been fired by the Department of Justice (DoJ) and what the DoJ has told various people (especially the effected Senators) about the firings. The overall pattern shows that the DoJ has been presenting a coordinated set of lies, and continues to be both lying and hiding the truth. The scope of the lies and evasions is only just now coming into focus.

Josh first points out TPM Muckraker’s scoop on the firing of Kansas City U.S. Attorney Todd Graves. Sen. Kit Bond (R – MO) was told he was fired for "performance" reasons but told Graves himself that they merely wanted to give someone else the job. [Note: This is the same thing they told Arkansas U.S. Attorney Cummings when they replaced him, but evidence is coming out that Cummings was more likely fired because his investigation of the Republican Missouri Governor was getting too close to criminal action.] In an excellent editorial published May 10, 2007, the New York Times says "From the facts available, it looks like a main reason for installing Mr. Schlozman was to help Republicans win a pivotal Missouri Senate race.

Josh Marshall then summarizes what we know and what it means:
Now there are reports on the story from WaPo and the Post-Dispatch. Beyond the details of Graves' ouster and replacement by Bradley Schlozman, which we've been discussing for several days, there are two key points to focus on here. The first is that the congressional investigation has been going on for some three months. And the Department of Justice has repeated stated that eight US Attorneys were fired. That was clearly false. And there's a second point. We now know of several cases in which US Attorneys appeared on DOJ firing lists and then by supposed coincidence just happened to resign. The Graves revelation now puts the weight of evidence strongly in the favor of the conclusion that few if any of these resignations were unforced. No proof yet. But that has to be the assumption.

And there's one more point with respect to tomorrow's testimony by Attorney General Gonzales. There's been a lot of back and forth and speculation about all the faulty memories, the fact that virtually every senior official at DOJ has denied any role in actually choosing the names on the firing list and all the various claims of privilege. At the risk of stating the obvious, this is all of a piece. For three months the White House and the clique around Attorney General Gonzales have been involved in a concerted effort to cover up what happened here. And the intensity of the effort points to how bad the real story is. This has been obvious to anyone who has been following this story closely since January. But the fact that the DOJ has been collectively lying about the number of fired US Attorneys for all these months just confirms how true it is. Consider this: with all the document dumps, no emails or documents relating to Graves' firing? How can that be? The truth is that we still know very little about what happened here. Very little.
As of right now, no one in the Department of Justice will take credit for placing the names of U.S. Attorneys to be fired on the list that Kyle Sampson made very clear in his testimony to Congress that he aggregated rather than controlled. The number of people telling this story, the extended period of time and tightly coordinated nature of the lies and evasions clearly demonstrates that this is not the result of a few rogue individuals attempting "CYA" to protect their individual skins because of personal infractions. This is department-wide policy, carefully scripted, directed, coordinated, then practiced and performed like a stage play. It is group action designed by the office of Alberto Gonzales. We will see Alberto performing the role of "jester" today in the hearings held by the House Judiciary Committee. But that is only the carefully scripted and rehearsed role he is playing for the audience. It is not him.

Al is fighting a clear defensive action. He is defending the White House personnel who directed the activities. His sole purpose now is to keep the questions focused on the actions of members of his Department of Justice for as long as he can. That will keep the investigators and the holders of hearings from going after Harriet Miers (resigned Presidential Counsel) as well as Karl Rove and his staff. Winning means stretching out the time so that the hearings do not get to the White House before January 2009 when the new President is installed.


See previous post Fired US attys say criminal cases will result from the firings..

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Saudis giving up on current al Maliki government of Iraq

David Ignatius of the Washington Post reports that the Saudi Arabian King Abdullah doesn't think that the current al Maliki government of Iraq will succeed, so he is working to bring a new government into Baghdad.
Abdullah had seemed to be distancing himself from Washington in some recent comments. In February, he broke with U.S. efforts to isolate the radical Palestinian group Hamas by sponsoring the Mecca Agreement that created a Palestinian "unity government" fusing Hamas with the more moderate Fatah. In March, he surprised U.S. officials by calling the military occupation of Iraq "illegitimate" in a speech to an Arab League summit in Riyadh. He also nixed plans for a White House dinner in April.

Abdullah's criticism of the "illegitimate" American presence in Iraq reflects the Saudi leader's deep misgivings about U.S. strategy there. Saudi sources say the king has given up on the ability of Iraq's Shiite prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, to overcome sectarian divisions and unite the country. The Saudi leadership is also said to believe that the U.S. troop surge is likely to fail, deepening the danger of all-out civil war in Iraq.

The Saudis appear to favor replacing the Maliki government, which they see as dominated by Iranian-backed Shiite religious parties, and are quietly backing former interim prime minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite and ex-Baathist who has support among Iraqi Sunnis. Allawi's advisers say that his strategy is to exploit tensions within the Shiite religious alliance and form a new ruling coalition that would be made up of Sunnis, Kurds and secular Shiites. Allawi's camp believes he is close to having enough votes, thanks in part to Saudi political and financial support.

The Bush administration appears to have little enthusiasm for an Allawi putsch, despite its frustration with Maliki. U.S. officials fear that a change of government in Baghdad would only deepen the political disarray there and encourage new calls for the withdrawal of troops.

The ferment in the region is driven partly by the perception that U.S. troops are on the way out, no matter what the Bush administration says. To dampen such speculation, Bush is said to have told the Saudis that America will not withdraw from Iraq during his presidency. "That gives us 18 months to plan," said one Saudi source.
Since Dick Cheney apparently agrees, this is the position the U.S. will probably be taking over the next 18 months.

This appears to be the other side of the Washington, D.C. Iraq-issue from the position the Democrats are taking. The so-called Surge is a stopgap tactic that delays efforts to require a troop pullout, and this Cheney-Abdullah initiative is the dream of some form of success in Iraq that remains for the NeoCons. If the Democrats succeed in passing some kind of legislation that requires an American troop pullout, the Cheney-Abdullah efforts will collapse. [Note: Yes, this is an oversimplification, but it is the kind of oversimplification that will drive the political debate.]

I'm surprised that Cheney and the Bush administration have been so totally secret about this initiative. They are so totally focused on secrecy that they don't trust the American public to understand a good argument. Although how good this argument really is certainly is open to question.

I guess that is the question. Cheney and the NeoCons cannot deal with being questioned because so many of their ideas are considered flawed by most people. Put it out to the public and they will be stopped. So they want the kind of unquestioned control that Saudi King Abdullah has over Saudi Arabia. Thus they have developed the idea of the Unitary Executive.

Complicated, isn't it?

Fired US attys say criminal cases will result from the firings.

David Iglesias, fired U.S. Attorney from New Mexico, and John McKay, fired U.S. Attorney for Western Washington, tell the Seattle Times that there may be criminal charges resulting from the Pearl Harbor Day Massacre of U.S. Attorneys. They also said that:
...they believe White House political operative Karl Rove and his aides instigated the dismissals and ultimately decided who among the nation's 93 U.S. attorneys should be fired.
This is a story that has a long way left to go.

My opinion - Attorney General Gonzales may well not be much of a manager. Lawyers often aren't. But contrary to the impression he left in his Senate testimony, he is a very intelligent man. He is, in fact, both intelligent enough and well-enough trained as a lawyer that he could plausibly present a story to the Senate in which the White House was totally unconnected to the real hand Rove and his staff had in the U.S. Attorney Purge. All Alberto G. had to do to present such a story was to appear to be a totally detached figurehead playing as leader while simply not understanding what was really going on. This would be play-acting worthy of an Oscar at the least, but Alberto is fully capable of such a performance.

If that is what is going on, it will only last as long as every knowledgeable person closely involved sticks to the pre-planned story. That is the real significance of Monica Goodling. She is quite young, not really old enough to realize the risks she was running. She is just now becoming aware that her entire future many be sacrificed so that the principle individuals she is being asked to protect can keep their power.She has got to be asking herself if it is worth the candle, and the people depending on her to stick to the story have to be feeling highly uncertain about her. The pressures on her from both sides have to be tremendous.

If, as Mckay and Iglesias say, this moves on the criminal cases, the pressure on Monica Goodling will get even greater, which is why her attorneys are trying to get immunity for her from Congress.

As I say, this story has a way to go.

Here's what a Super-Pollster does for a campaign

Mark Schmitt describes what functions a Super-pollster performs for a political campaign. Then he explains what the Super-Pollster Mark Penn ("Worldwide President and CEO" of Burson-Marsteller, the fifth-largest public relations firm) does and how he does it. He starts his commentary from the excellent article in the Nation by Ari Berman.

This is definitely worth reading. Burson-Marsteller's website is found here.

John Bolton - example of the failure of Cheney foreign policy

I finished running the early voting location yesterday, came home and crawled into bed. It wasn't hard, but it was really, really looooonnnnngggg. Plus, I was sitting at a computer finding names of registered voters all day and NOT surfing the Internet! Frustrating! The world was passing my by, and I just had to sit there and let it roll. But now I'm back to my digital reality for a couple of days. And the first thing I have found was the latest on John Bolton, failed UN Ambassador from Dick Cheney. Steve Clemons at his "Washington Note" has several things to say about Bolton.

There are two posts, both from May, 4. The first reports Bolton's comments as he received the Bradley Prize. In his acceptance speech Bolton does a great deal more to demonstrate that he is himself a rather nasty piece of work than he does to provide any significant information that is of use to policy makers or the public for such policy. Here is Steve Clemons' short summary:
"...a brief rant on the importance of fighting liberal government bureaucracies as a conservative political appointee. In other words, be a headache for your liberal colleagues and, in Bolton's particular case, push back against the instructions of your quasi-internationalist Secretary of State.

And why should one do that? In essence, according to John Bolton, because some higher-level political appointees have "gone native," adopted the culture of their bureaucracies, and are ignoring their legitimate democratic mandate to govern conservatively.

My favorite part of the speech, though? It had to be his grouping Sens. Lincoln Chafee and Chris Dodd together with Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Syria:

"There are, of course, many other people I should mention. For example, I should note Senators Lincoln Chafee and Chris Dodd, who did so much to help make me eligible for this Prize. Prominent citizens of Pyongyang, Havana, Damascus, Tehran and elsewhere also pitched in, simply by being themselves."
In short, Bolton can't work with anyone else, doesn't want to work with anyone else, and he is proud of his utter failure at being a social person and effective diplomat. A better example of the uselessness and failure of 'conservative' foreign policy (as well as of Bolton himself) would be hard to find.

Steve's second post, in which he considers the significance of Bolton's acceptance speech, points out that John Bolton's departure from the U.S. Department of State has been immediately followed by a series of small but significant successes for the Department of State. Here is an example of the improved tone of U.S. activity in the UN now that John Bolton has been replaced by someone who cares.

I had always thought that a positive measure of a person's contribution to the work of an organization was demonstrated when the organization becomes less effective or even fails after that person leaves it. Bolton has demonstrated that his departure has resulted in a much improved State Department. John Bolton's "contributions" to U.S. foreign policy can't get much clearer.

Bolton's comments upon acceptance of the Bradley Prize demonstrate that this connection is lost on him. He is much too busy telling others about his innate belief of his superiority over non-Conservatives and other lesser people. Someone like Bolton who has to brag about how correct his unique vision is usually brags to conceal a strong sense of personal inferiority. I can't even say that I feel any sorrow about his sad emotional state. I'm just glad he's gone from official policy-making and destruction.

Now that John Bolton is no longer able to mess up American foreign policy with his incompetence, personal nastiness and sick destructive "conservatism" perhaps we could soon be similarly fortunate with Bolton's mentor, Dick Cheney ....



[Revised and extended 4:53 PM CDT.]

Monday, May 07, 2007

What we won't hear from the MSM about Fred Thompson's red pickup truck.

The story of Fred Thompson's red pickup tells who Thompson really is. But since he is a Republican, it doesn't matter that it is well-documented. The major media will NOT publish the story.

Sunday, May 06, 2007

David Broder defends his columns

I used to have a lot of respect for what David Broder wrote in his columns, but either I was unaware of how inaccurate he often was or he has gotten much, much worse in the years that the Republicans dominated the Congress. Here is his on-line question and answer session. See what you think.

Then, here is what TRex at Firedoglake thinks and here is what Think Progress wrote about the same conversation. Then we have Atrios weighing in with his opinion.

I am sad to say that I agree with TRex, Think Progress and Atrios.

Here's what I think Broder has gotten wrong. He assumes that the majority of American people are politically moderate, pragmatic centerists. I'll agree with him this far.

But then he seems to think that the two parties, Republican and Democratic, are the Right and Left sides of the political spectrum. Each has its moderate and its extreme members, and the agendas of each party tend to represent the most extreme members because agendas of this type are the easiest to use to get elected. Broder thinks that voters tend to vote for the more extreme, simplified agendas and not for agendas built on compromise. The logical conclusion that I think Broder has drawn is that if you take the public agendas of each party then you have found the extreme versions of both the Right and the Left politically. Take those extreme agendas together with the assumption above that Americans prefer moderate, centrist solutions to problem, and the logical conclusion is that the majority of the American people want to find a political position that is half-way between the two agendas. This is where he has gone wildly wrong.

The Republican Party is a top-down hierarchical party, with the agenda set by those in overall control. The conservative movement has been a movement of some of the most radical and extreme right-wingers in America. The result has been that the political agenda of the Republican party has been extremely right-wing, with moderate Republicans having little or no say in it. This agenda is not close to what the practical average American voters want, but since this top-down hierarchical Republican Party is dominated by very wealthy right-wing extremists like Richard Mellon-Scaife and Joseph Coors and some powerful right-wing fundamentalist religious leaders who want to take religious control of the government, that is the agenda the Republicans present. Since it is an essentially unpopular agenda with the majority of Americans, it must be forcefully implemented, often by stealth, lies or by the use of raw power.

The Democratic Party is structured very differently. Instead of being a top-down hierarchical party, it is a loose alliance of many groups with a variety of agendas. The agenda of the Democratic Party is the result of a great deal of internal political activity before it ever sees the light of day. If there is an extreme left-wing group in America, it is essentially politically mute. The result is that the basic agenda of the Democratic Party is already very much like what the majority of Americans are looking for, a practical set of solutions to clear problems that are widely recognized.

There is a second part to the Democratic Party agenda, however, and that is the part that actively rejects the extremist agenda items the Republican Party are implementing through stealth, lies and raw power. The tactics of stealth, lies and raw power are designed to run over any logical or rational debate and attempts at compromise. The Democratic reaction to this has been slow to build, because the needed aggressiveness and use of raw power to counter raw power are foreign to the normal nature of the majority of Americans, those who make up the Democratic Party. As the Bush administration has gotten more corrupt and extreme, the reaction in the Democratic Party has built up. The largest cause of this at present is the senseless and incompetently fought war in Iraq. Since Bush refuses any form of compromise, he is going to have to be stopped and, if possible, removed from office.

It is the Democratic activists who loudly proclaim that the only way to stop the Republican extremism is to take aggressive and extreme actions against them. The Democratic activists are the people the Republicans are declaring to be left-wing extremists. They are not. They are mostly moderate centerists who have been pushed too far by the extremist and very radical Republican Party currently led and controlled by the radicals George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, the Social Right (Dominionists) and the NeoCons. It is not an extremist action to resist tyranny, and what the Republicans offer is exactly that - tyranny.

David Broder has probably not been outside Washington D.C. and done original reporting of any significance in decades. All he sees is the various political activities in the Capital city, and he is applying a simplistic version of late 50's and early 60's political science as taught in high schools in those days to the actions he sees in Washington. That's my opinion of where he has gone wrong.

Now, because of his age and left-over reputation, he is resistant to change long held beliefs and gets angry when he is called on them. So I don't expect him to change.

Now this is my most likely belief. The alternative is that he has been bought-off somehow by the Republican conservatives to try to make them look good. While this is possible, I don't think that Broder himself would accept this opinion of his motives and performance. That is why I consider the first proposed explanation a lot more likely.

So go read the question-and-answer at the Washington Post and see if you agree with either of my explanations.


Yuk! It's 1:00 AM. I'm going to have to get up at 5:00 AM, and since I am the lead clerk at my location, I can't be late.

My apologies to those looking for posts here.

Both of you. ;-}

I've been running an early election poll 13 hours a day since Thursday, and will be continuing through Tuesday, so it has been a question of sleeping or reading and writing here. Then I'll do the same thing for the regular election next Saturday.

It's an election for mayor and city council, with a single amendment to the Texas Constitution setting a cap on property taxes for the aged and disabled added, so it is low-key at best. But someone has to operate the polls, and I'm one of them.

Unfortunately, it keeps me from being here.

Which reminds me - make sure that you are registered! Now! Call and check.

Send in for for a replacement certificate if you can't locate yours! Don't let yourself be disenfranchised! Make sure that every Democrat you know is registered!

Iraq to have ungly ending - Bush making sure it is not on his watch.

As long as American troops are still fighting in Iraq in January 2009, the ultimate failure and disaster there cannot be blamed on Bush. So Bush will drag out the unwinnable war American occupation in Iraq so that a Democrat will be blamed for the loss when someone sensible actually pulls us out of that benighted country.
Other than the cost in American blood, does it really matter whether we start withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq on Oct. 1, as the Democrats called for in the bill Bush vetoed last week, or after the next presidential election? The outcome is likely to be the same - bloody chaos as sectarian factions slaughter each other and settle scores. Is postponing that awful day of reckoning worth the lives and the limbs of hundreds or even thousands more American soldiers?

The president talks about a "way forward" in Iraq; Democrats are talking about a way out of Iraq, and most Americans are with them. But Bush continues to defy both.

Bush is as stubborn as he is cocky, and he has made it clear that public opinion be damned, he's going to hang tough until Iraq becomes his successor's problem. He must know that the next president will have a popular mandate to end the war, whatever the consequences for Iraq and the region.

There is another reality closing in on the White House, the fact that the U.S. combat role in Iraq cannot be sustained much longer without breaking the back of our severely stressed military. How long can we maintain current troop levels before exhausting our soldiers, many of whom are on their second and third tours of duty in Iraq? Some units are being deployed to Iraq without adequate training or equipment, often with fatal consequences for underprepared troops. The Army has lowered its recruitment standards and increased retention bonuses to meet its manpower needs.
So what should Americans do? Ask the deputy commander of al Qaeda himself. This is from Juan Cole:
"Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's no. 2 leader complained in a videotape released Saturday about the Democrats' plan to withdraw US troops from Iraq. Al-Zawahiri said he preferred that the US remain so that Muslim guerrillas could bleed the US military. Where have I heard that sort of reasoning before? Aha! It is a fly trap strategy!

Al-Zawahiri's opposition to the Democratic plan suggests that it is the right plan."
The current American death rate in Iraq runs roughly 60 per month, and the wounded are eight times the death rate. That's going to be roughly 1200 more dead in 9600 more severely wounded in the next 20 months until a new President is installed. After that it will take roughly another year to get all the American troops out, with casualties continuing.

Iraq presents no danger to the U.S. that continued combat operations can prevent. Sen. Jim Webb has it right.
"We won this war four years ago. The question is when we end the occupation."
Gregory Stanford in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out
... that the cumulative $564 billion allocated for the war by Sept. 1 could pay for pre-school for every 3- and 4-year-old in the country for the next eight years."
And that's only what America is spending on the occupation of Iraq. The cost for Iraqis is a great deal higher in both casualties and treasure. We just don't have those numbers.

America is spending massive amounts of blood and treasure in Iraq for only one reason. That reason is so the angry, emotionally-crippled little boy in the White House doesn't have to admit that he failed when he preemptively invaded Iraq and incompetently handle the occupation. Dante would have to describe an additional, even lower level of Hell just for George W. Bush to occupy. There is no reason other than Bush's sick ego for those casualties or the military expenditures. None!

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Great reporting by the Main Stream Media experts

Here (from Glenn Greenwald) are a few of the significant things that have been happening in the world very recently:
This week, the Bush administration sought vastly increased powers to spy on the telephone conversations of Americans, and then threatened to begin spying again illegally and without warrants. It was revealed that Condoleezza Rice would meet with Syrian officials, a significant shift in Middle East policy.

Yesterday, it was disclosed that Iraq's government is actually purging itself of anyone who seeks to impede lawless Shiite militias. And one of the right-wing's most influential academicians published an article on The Wall St. Journal Op-Ed page explicitly advocating "one-man rule" in America whereby the President can ignore the "rule of law" in order to fight The Terrorists.
Then we get the big story from the new online political reporting agency, the Politico.

This is also from Glenn greenwald:
None of that -- or virtually anything else of even marginal significance -- was reported by The Politico, an online political magazine founded by some of the nation's most prestigious and admired (in Beltway terms) political journalists. But yesterday, The Politico's so-called "chief political columnist," Roger Simon (Bio), published a 674-word article -- prominently touted on The Politico's front page -- exclusively about John Edwards' haircuts, cleverly headlined "Hair today, gone tomorrow."
OK. My question is, where is Mr. Simon's sense of priorities? Is this really the best story he could find to write? The "Edward's haircut" is purely a story made up by reporters. Surely Mr. Simon could have used his time, talents, and access to media space to tell the public something significant about some of the many, many politicians who are presently working hard to get government jobs.

Republicans reduce Democratic vote by claims of vote fraud

Here's another story that the mainstream press doesn't want to report. The frequent accusations of "Vote Fraud" by Republicans is a cover for actually depressing the overall vote and convincing mostly Democratic voters not to vote. McClatchy has the story.

Then Digby builds on the McClatchy story.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Bill O'Reilly worse than Father Coughin of 1930's

Media Researchers at Indiana University have documented that Bill O'Reilly calls a person or a group a derogatory name on the average every 6.8 seconds in his opening editorials. According to Think Progress the researchers used techniques for researching the propaganda content of six months worth of his editorials.
Researchers found that O’Reilly "was prone to inject fear into his commentaries and quick to resort to name-calling. He also frequently assigned roles or attributes — such as ‘villians’ or downright ‘evil’ — to people and groups."
No surprise to anyone except Bill himself.

Emptywheel reports on data dump from DoJ re: US attorney purge

Emptywheel has been working overtime. Let me provide some annotated referrals to her posts on the Department of Justice data dump.

  • Sara Taylor, aid to Karl Rove, threatened fired US Attorneys if they spoke out. Two days before leaving office, Carol Lam (US Attorney, San Diego) indicted Brent Wilkes and CIA executive Kyle "Dusty" Foggo. Two days after Ms. Lam left, Ms. Taylor contacted Kyle Sampson at DoJ re: NY Times article about Harriet Miers' involvement in Bud Cummins' dismissal. The following Monday Mike Elston, chief of Staff to Deputy AG Paul McNulty, at DoJ Washington called Bud Cummins and threatened retaliation if he went public on the firing. Links included.
  • Testimony of Deputy AG Paul McNulty to the Senate. Emptywheel connects Mr. McNulty's testimony on the phone calls to the fired US Attorney, and he linked his actions to Karl Rove's White House office, the White House Office of Political Affairs. Links included.
  • Why did Carol Lam think she was being asked to resign. Ms. Lam asked, no one ever answered her. Emptywheel considers what is known. Links included.
  • "Dusty" Foggo is trying to get his trial moved. Emptywheel points out that removing Carol Lam was supposed to let the DoJ appoint a compliant prosecutor for "Dusty" Foggo, sort of like the way they did with the Tobaccl Lawsuit. But the "flap" that has grown up around the US Attorney Purge has prevented that. So Foggo's attorneys are trying another tack. Links included.
  • Time line for James Comey. Comey is going to testify to the Senate tomorrow, so EmptyWheel presents a time line of his connections to the US Attorney Purge and to the earlier firing of the US Attorney Frederick Black. Black was removed as USA for Guam and Marianas Islands because he had started an investigation of the activities of Jack Abramoff.

Catch up on the investigations inside the Department of Justice

Emptywheel and Chuck Schumer spotted these details weeks ago. Monica Goodling was illegally administering loyalty oaths for Assistant US Attorneys. Want a job as an Assistant USA? She has been asking who you voted for as President in 2000 and 2004, and checking which party you donated money to. Democrats need not apply. Since AUSAs are federal civil servants, this is as flagrant a violation of law as -- well, as so many other things the Bush administration has been doing for the last six years.

The article in the Next Hurrah brings everything up to date.

Enjoy the Schadenfreude. It is even more pleasant when you think how very, very little Monica Goodling is enjoying it.

Professor Mansfield - President is above the Law.

Harvard Government Professor Harvey Mansfield has published a treatise that explains why Republicans believe "The Case for the Strong Executive -- Under some circumstances, the Rule of Law must yield to the need for Energy."

Glenn Greenwald explains what Professor Mansfield is trying to say.

Read the Greenwald article, then go look at my article Rule of Law vs. Arbitrary Command. Then ask yourself which society you want to live in.

Senate Judiciary Committee subpoenaed all emails to and from Rove by Gonzales

From Laura Rozen:
The chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday subpoenaed Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to turn over all e-mails to or from White House political adviser Karl Rove in connection with the controversy over the firings last year of eight U.S. attorneys.

The subpoena suggests that the congressional inquiry is focusing on Rove and whether he shaped the firings and hirings of U.S. attorneys and whether the purge was influenced by GOP concerns about corruption probes and investigations of voter fraud in battleground states during the last election.

Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., said he took the step only after Gonzales twice declined to turn over such e-mails voluntarily. The subpoena gives Gonzales a May 15 deadline. If he does not comply, Leahy said, he will be asked to appear before the panel to answer questions.
I'm betting that even if Gonzales turns over all the emails to and from Rove, there will me none that are incriminating. That's because the DoJ had Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling as what I am calling "consigliares" and that in the White House Harriet Miers functioned the same way for Rove. That's why Sampson, Goodling and Miers are gone now, and if they are indicted and tried they will fall on their swords like "Scooter" Libby did for Dick Cheney.

Though Goodling might be a weak link. Her effort to "lawyer up" and the lawyer's comments that she would refuse to testify to the Senate for fear of a "perjury trap" suggests that she realized what her function was to be the fall guy. She's only about 34, and Sampson is only 37. That is awfully young to accept the sacrifice of your future because your boss has to be protected from his criminal activity.

[See the McKlatchy story here.]

Republican 2008 Presidential possibilities.

I have no special expertise in the polls and probabilities of who will become the Republican nominee for President in 2008, nor do I have any direct knowledge or deep study of how the Presidential election is likely to go. But based on what I have seen in the media and read on the blogs, I think that three posts Kevin Drum wrote yesterday seem to express the current situation quite well.

First, Kevin quotes this exchange between George Stephanapolous and George Will from Sunday's "ABC with George Stephanapolous":
George Stephanopoulos: If this now declared deadline of Gen. Petraeus of September, if the political goals haven't been met by then, do you see large scale Republican defections at that point?

George Will: Absolutely. They do not want to have, as they had in 2006, another election on Iraq. George, it took 30, 40 years for the Republican Party to get out from under Herbert Hoover. People would say, "Are you going to vote for Nixon in '60?" "No, I don't like Hoover." The Depression haunted the Republican Party. This could be a foreign policy equivalent of the Depression, forfeiting the Republican advantage they've had since the '68 convention of the Democratic Party and the nomination of [George] McGovern. The advantage Republicans have had on national security matters may be forfeited.
[Underlining mine - editor]
This is a very pessimistic view of both the Republican prospects for winning the Presidency in 2008 and for the long-term effects on the republican Party of running while the War in Iraq continues. I do not see any evidence at all that this view is too pessimistic for 2008. I am less certain of the long-term effects.

But Thomas Sowell's statement ( Bio.)
When I see the worsening degeneracy in our politicians, our media, our educators, and our intelligentsia, I can't help wondering if the day may yet come when the only thing that can save this country is a military coup.
Dr. Sowell's claim to fame is that he is a Black man with an ability to write extremely conservative literature. In this statement he appears to be as pessimistic as George Will, and thinking in the kind of extreme right-wing manner that led the Spanish General Franco to rebel against the Spanish government in the 1930's. Let's just say that Dr. Sowell has no real hope for a Republican win of the Presidency in 2008.

So in the absence of any well-known Republicans providing more positive prediction for 2008, the next question is who will the Republicans nominate to run for President in 2008. Kevin provides the currently obvious pick. The choices are:
  • John McCain.
    Currently Sen. McCain is spiralling into irrelevancy. He hung his hat on his hawkish rhetoric to expand the war in Iraq and win, assuming that bush would do the sensible thing and accept the lifeline thrown by the Baker-Hamilton group. When instead bush rejected that and went for the surge, the total unreality of McCain's rhetoric was exposed. That then accentuated the age problem. McCain just looks and acts too old to be President, two years before he could take office. He is toast.

  • Rudy Guiliani.
    New Yorkers are simply waiting for Rudy to implode in front of a camera somewhere. It's just a matter of time.
  • Fred Thompson.
    He is just a display of how desperate the Republican Party is for someone plausible to run. The Republicans look back to Reagan is their last, best President, and since he was an actor, maybe they can get the actor Fred Thompson to run and be another Reagan. While the Republicans could do a lot worse, the general public isn't going to buy someone just because he is on TV all the time in the popular Law & Order shows. That's just desperation speaking.
  • Mitt Romney.
    Ex-Governor of Massachusetts who has had to sharply revise his political views literally overnight from those acceptable to the generally liberal Massachusetts voters to those acceptable to the Republican social conservatives. He is, however, wealthy and attractive on TV. Personally I doubt that most Republicans would be happy voting for a Mormon, but it looks like he is all they have.
So Kevin Drum and I pretty much agree that as of right now, Mitt Romney has the best chance of getting the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

The result is that the Republicans themselves don't give themselves any real chance of winning the Presidency in 2008, and all of their candidates are badly flawed, but most are flawed a lot worse than Mitt Romney, so he will probably be chosen to make the sacrificial run for the job.

At the moment, things look really dark for the Republican possibilities of winning the Presidency in 2008. However, things change very fast in politics, and it is a really long time until the Republican Convention and the Presidential election in 2008. When training for the military I was introduced to the concept of "begin morning nautical twilight" (BMNT). Just prior to that moment is the last really dark part of the night. After that, the sun is close enough to the horizon to begin to shed a little light. While the military teaches that as the most likely time to start an attack, it also has psychological ramifications. It is the darkest the night can get then, and can be followed by slowly increasing amounts of light. I'd rather hope that right now is really end evening nautical twilight (EENT)for the Republicans, suggesting that a long dark night is ahead for them.

I'm just not ready to count on it.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

This I can't resist. (I slow down for car-wrecks, too.)

Tom DeLay is blogging away furiously. His motto?

No Retreat, No Surrender

(I'm surprised he doesn't add "No Reality".)

Why no investigation of the Niger forgeries by FBI?

The basis for the "16 words in the State of the Union Speech" was a set of forged documents called, collectively, the Niger forgeries. They were provided by the Italian Intelligence Service (SISMI) to both the U.S. and to the British. They were the alleged "proof" that Dick Cheney was told several times by the FBI Director, George Tenet, was not credible. Tenet had references to them removed from at least two speeches given by Cheney in the Fall of 2002.

In his Sunday "60 Minutes" interview Tenet says that the reference to Iraq seeking Uranium in Africa should have been removed from Bush's 2003 State of the Union speech, but that he did not himself read the speech before it was given and it slipped through. (This should be verified with whoever Tenet delegated the vetting of the speech to.)

Sen. Rockerfeller asked the FBI to thoroughly investigate the Niger forgeries years ago. And what has happened? Josh Marshall brings the story up to date.



Between Congressional the government oversight that the Democrats have reinstituted since regaining control of Congress, and the civil suit which Valerie Plame has filed (against Dick Cheney and a cast of characters from the White House), more will come out. Soon, I suspect.

Personally, I think that a key figure is going to be Michael Ledeen, a long-time radical Neoconservative who has strong right-wing connections in Italy and who was deeply involved in the Iran-Contra Affair during the Reagan administration.

So now we wait for the next shoe to drop.


As always, references to Wikipedia should not be considered authoritative. They provide good references.

Murray Waas - Gonzales delegated US atty firings to Sampson, Goodling

I wondered what Murray Waas was doing since "Scooter" Libby was convicted. Now we know.
Attorney General Alberto Gonzales signed a highly confidential order in March 2006 delegating to two of his top aides ... extraordinary authority over the hiring and firing of most non-civil-service employees of the Justice Department. [Snip]

In the order, Gonzales delegated to his then-chief of staff, D. Kyle Sampson, and his White House liaison "the authority, with the approval of the Attorney General, to take final action in matters pertaining to the appointment, employment, pay, separation, and general administration" of virtually all non-civil-service employees of the Justice Department, including all of the department's political appointees who do not require Senate confirmation. Monica Goodling became White House liaison in April 2006, the month after Gonzales signed the order.

The existence of the order suggests that a broad effort was under way by the White House to place politically and ideologically loyal appointees throughout the Justice Department, not just at the U.S.-attorney level. Department records show that the personnel authority was delegated to the two aides at about the same time they were working with the White House in planning the firings of a dozen U.S. attorneys, eight of whom were, in fact, later dismissed. [Snip]

An original draft of Gonzales's delegation of authority to Sampson and Goodling was so broad that it did not even require the two aides to obtain the final approval of the attorney general before moving to dismiss other department officials
[From Murray Waas, published April 30, 2007 in the National Journal.]
This explains Gonzales' total lack of understanding of the process by which the U.S. Attorneys were fired on Pearl Harbor Day of 2006. Gonzales was establishing plausible deniability for himself. Then when he appeared before the Senate, he allowed himself to look like a total doofus rather than point to this letter delagating the authority to Sampson and Goodling. Looking like an idiot or an incompetent must have been easier than explaining why he signed this document.

The choices for Gonzales at the Senate testimony have been to
  • Look like an idiot and incompetent, (he's not)
  • appear to be a total failure as a manager, (possible) or
  • protect the White House involvement in the firings and the politicization of the Department of Justice. (My bet.)
This also explains why the emails [See the January 9, 2006 email from Kyle Sampson to Harriet Miers. Presumably the process of politicizing the Department of Justice preceded the effort at covering it up.] discussing the firings went from Sampson to the White House Counsel, Harriet Miers, without even a Cc to Gonzales. Miers, of course, worked closely with Karl Rove and President Bush. Neither of them wanted to be addressed in such documents, so their only contact would have been verbal. Again, plausible deniability.

Harriet Miers, Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling have all resigned from the government, Sampson and Goodling over the U.S. Attorney firings and Miers for "personal reasons."

More to come on this I am sure.