The fracture points of the upcoming Repbulican civil war

Two weeks from now Obama is going to win the election for President. Is that a certainty? No. But it is most likely. The result will be (among other things) a civil war within the Republican Party. Kevin Drum anticipates the nature of that civil war. But he is oversimplifying the Republican problem. He thinks it will be a civil war between extreme right-wingers and moderates. I disagree.

The Reagan Revolution was based on an alliance between the small government - total deregulation - free marketers; the NeoCons; the southern opponents of the Civil Rights Movement; and the Social conservatives. (There was overlap between the last two groups.) That alliance was held together in 1988 by Bush 41 because he was the direct descendant of Reagan, but he didn't keep the social conservatives in 1992. That loss, plus Ross Perot combined with the economic downturn in 1992 allowed Clinton to win that election in 1992. Clinton then won reelection in 1996 based on incumbency. But in 2000 Bush 43 brought back the social conservatives, which was a key element in "W's" narrow win. Essentially Bush 43 recreated the Reagan coalition. The margin of Bush 43's win in 2004 was his incumbency. But he had no legacy that passed the social conservatives to any Republican candidate in 2008. The big split in the Republican Party was and remains that between the social conservatives and the rest of the Republicans. The old Reagan alliance collapsed during the Republican Presidential primaries in 2008.

The social conservatives would not accept Giuliani (pro-abortion) or Romney (Mormon) under any circumstances. Nor did they find McCain acceptable, though he was not so repellent as Giuliani or Romney. Huckabee was the candidate for the social conservatives, but he never got close to a majority of the Republican voters. McCain was more acceptable to the non social conservative side of the Republican Party than Romney or Giuliani, so he ended up with the nomination by default. But McCain himself was going nowhere until he chose Palin (after the social conservatives vetoed Lieberman.)

Now we are coming down to the crunch, two weeks before the election. The McCain camp has essentially offered the social conservatives anything and everything they want (Palin was the key), so the social conservatives are beginning to come on board. But that capitulation to the social conservatives has lost the moderate Republicans totally. That explains the Colin Powell endorsement of Obama.

In essence the Republican Party of the Reagan alliance (the moderate and right-wing Republicans combined with the Christian Coalition) has collapsed. But it's a lot more complicated than just a far right and moderate right disagreement. It's basically the social conservatives demanding control of the Republican Party and the rest of the Republicans refusing to give it. The extreme right and the moderate right analysis is just part of the "rest of the Republicans." It does not explain what is happening to the Republican Party at all.

The civil war within the Republican Party is going to be between the social conservatives and the rest of the Republicans. Neither side will accept dominance by the other, and without the two combined the national Republican Party will not be able to win the Presidency.

The coming Republican civil war is going to be interesting. Unless something or someone unexpected comes out of the woodwork, the Republican Party is set to go into a perpetual minority status.