Democrats are closing in on filibuster-proof Senate

Steven Thomma of McClatchy Newspapers dares to use the word "Landslide."

It's pretty clear now that Obama is going to win the race for President. Polls show that he currently has over 270 electoral votes and probably well more. It's not guaranteed, but it is a good bet. So Thomma has discussed with Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg and Larry J. Sabato what is going to happen to the Senate and the House races.

The Democrats took control of the House in 2006 as part of the reaction against George W. Bush and presently control it by 235 Democrats to 199 Republicans with one vacancy. Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato all concur that the Democrats will add somewhere between 15 and 30 more House seats this Fall. It's the Senate that gets interesting.

Twelve Democratic Senators are running for reelection, with only Mary Landrieu of Louisiana is some danger of losing her seat.

01	Baucus, Max- (D - MT)
02	Biden, Joseph R., Jr.- (D - DE)
03	Durbin, Richard- (D - IL)
04	Harkin, Tom- (D - IA)
05	Johnson, Tim- (D - SD)
06	Kerry, John F.- (D - MA)
07	Landrieu, Mary L.- (D - LA)
08	Lautenberg, Frank R.- (D - NJ)
09	Levin, Carl- (D - MI)
10	Pryor, Mark L.- (D - AR)
11	Reed, Jack- (D - RI)
12	Rockefeller, John D., IV- (D - WV)

There are 18 Republican Senators running for reelection.

13	Alexander, Lamar- (R - TN)
14	Barrasso, John - (R -WY) *
15	Chambliss, Saxby- (R - GA)
16	Cochran, Thad - (R - MS) **
17	Coleman, Norm- (R - MN)
18	Collins, Susan M.- (R - ME)
19	Cornyn, John- (R - TX)
20	Dole, Elizabeth- (R - NC)
21	Enzi, Michael B.- (R - WY)*
22	Graham, Lindsey- (R - SC)
23	Inhofe, James M.- (R - OK)
24	McConnell, Mitch- (R - KY)
25	Roberts, Pat- (R - KS)
26	Sessions, Jeff- (R - AL)
27	Smith, Gordon H.- (R - OR)
28	Stevens, Ted- (R - AK)
29	Sununu, John E.- (R - NH)
30	Wicker, Roger (R - MS) *

Five Republican Senators decided not to run for reelection.

31	Allard, Wayne- (R - CO)
32	Craig, Larry E.- (R - ID)
33	Domenici, Pete V.- (R - NM)
34	Hagel, Chuck- (R - NE)
35	Warner, John- (R - VA)

So what seats are the Democrats likely to pick up? (33) New Mexico and (35) Virginia are almost certain to go to the Democrats. Other threatening Democratic pickups are (28) Alaska, (31) Colorado, (17) Minnesota, (30) Mississippi, (29) New Hampshire, (27) Oregon, and possibly even (24) Kentucky and (20) North Carolina. Then even (15) Georgia is not out of the range of possibility with Saxby Chambliss ahead by a mere 3 points.

That's eleven possible pickups for the Democrats. Charlie Cook pointed out several days ago that when there is a sweeping change of party election as this one is shaping up to be, there is a tendency for all the contested seats to go to the same party. Ten wins and no loss in Louisiana would provide a filibuster-proof Democratic Majority in The Senate even if (as seems likely) Independent Party Senator Joe Lieberman changes party and joins the Republicans.

I wouldn't make anything close to an even money bet that the Democrats will get the net ten Senate seats this election, but I certainly expect it to be more likely than if you just took the odds on each race and combined them.

We can hope, can't we?