Saturday, February 09, 2008

Today's primaries

Today we have
  • Republican Primary in Kansas (39 delegates)
  • Louisiana primary (Democrats - 68 delegates; Republicans - 47 delegates)
  • Nebraska Democratic caucus (31 delegates)
  • Washington state caucuses (Democrats - 97 delegates; Republicans - 40 delegates)
  • Virgin Islands is holding a Democratic caucus worth 9 delegates
[See A list of 2008 state primaries and caucuses for everything this year.]

MSNBC announces that Huckabee has won the Kansas primary with a resounding 60 percent to McCain's 24 percent over McCain. Texas Rep. Ron Paul got 11 percent to maintain his usual showing in the republican primaries. This is the first Republican contest since Romney suspended his campaign.

Obama has won the Nebraska caucus. In Washington State, with 24% of the votes counted MSNBC reports "Obama was winning 65 percent of delegates to Clinton's 33 percent." MSNBC goes on to point out that with both Obama and Hillary seen as offering very similar policies, the issue seems to be a question of which of the two is more likely to be able to defeat McCain in November.

The International Herald Tribune has reported some interesting results from the Louisiana primary, but the winners and losers are not yet known. Louisiana has long been close to evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, but with the loss of over 200,000 people from the Democratic stronghold of New Orleans after Katrina, there is a strong likelihood that Republicans will dominate that state for the foreseeable future.

Blacks were close to half the Democratic electorate, while nine in 10 Republican primary voters were white. As is typical for presidential primaries, men predominated in the GOP electorate while more women voted in the Democratic contest. Close to one in 10 voters in both primaries were under age 30 and one in four were over age 65.


One in seven Democratic voters and about one in 10 Republicans said Hurricane Katrina caused their families severe hardship and they have not recovered. About one in four in both parties said the storm caused severe hardship but they have recovered. Two-thirds of Republicans and a little more than a half of Democrats said Katrina did not cause their family severe hardship. There also were early indications from the exit poll that the northern part of Louisiana was a larger share of the electorate in both parties compared to past primaries, reflecting a population decline in New Orleans and other coastal areas. [Snip]


In the historic Democratic contest to nominate either the first black or first woman for president, about one in five voters said gender was an important factor in their vote and about as many said that about race.
The results out of Louisiana should provide a hint regarding the political future of that state.

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