David Frum? Correct for once? Let's hope.

David Frum writes that the period of conservative ascendancy is coming to an end. Here is a key statement

In polls, Americans express preference for Democrats over Republicans on almost every issue surveyed, including such traditional Republican advantages as taxes, ethics and competence.

In 2002, equal numbers of Americans identified as Republicans and Democrats. In the six years since, Republican identification has collapsed back to the level recorded before Ronald Reagan. The decline has been steepest among young voters. If they eat right, exercise and wear seatbelts, today's 20-somethings will be voting against George W. Bush deep into the 2060s. Most ominously, US polls show an ideological sea change: a desire for a more activist government, a loss of interest in the tax question and a shift to the left on most social issues (although not, interestingly, abortion).

I wonder what his first clue was? FEMA at New Orleans? The Iraq invasion and botched occupation? The slow collapse of the American economy into recession and stagflation? Or maybe something else?