The Bush problem

Bush will ask others to do anything to avoid facing the fact that Bush totally failed America and failed as President when he ordered the invasion of Iraq.

OK. Leaders make decisions based on limited information and under real time constraints. We can't expect perfection, but we can hope they will recognize that the outcome of their decision shows they made the wrong choice and then take actions to correct the earlier error. It's part of being human. Bush, however, does not recognize the error he make in invading Iraq to eliminate terrorism.

Whether he is too stupid to recognize his error, is in an information bubble where no one dares explain the real problem to him, or knows the problems and simply refuses to admit his error is irrelevant. For whatever reason, Bush simply will not change his approach to Iraq. It's "continue to march and fight on for flag and country no matter how stupid the decisions" until the end of his term as President. That's 17 more months at an American death rate of 80 to 100 soldiers per month (minimum 1380 more American deaths between now and the end of January 2009) and no one knows how many Iraqi deaths. Iraqi deaths will be a lot more.

The solution built into the Constitution is impeachment. But the Constitution did not consider the growth of Political parties. Impeachment can be done in the House with a majority of the members approving. Impeachment is equivalent to having a Grand Jury recommend But then the Senate tries person impeached and requires a two-thirds majority to convict.

It is this two-thirds majority that makes the American two-party system most important. Representatives and Senators do not vote their conscience on the facts of the case. They vote the way their party tells them to vote. Two-thirds of the Senate is 67 Senators. Currently there are 49 Republican Senators, 49 Democratic Senators, and 2 Independent Senators. Presently there are 49 Democratic Senators, 48 Republican Senators, and two independent Senators who both vote with the Democratic caucus to choose the Senate Majority leader. Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY) died in June 2007 and has not yet been replaced. Under Wyoming law, the Wyoming Republican party will nominate three candidates and the Democratic governor of Wyoming will choose Sen. Craig's replacement from those three Republicans, so party affiliation will not change. The result in any impeachment trial will be 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans voting. Independent Senator Bernie Sanders can be expected to vote with the Democrats. Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman can be expected to vote with the Republicans. So any Party-line vote on an impeachment trial of Bush and Cheney can be expected to be 50 - 50.

Only a shift of 17 Republicans to towards conviction could remove Bush and Cheney. Why would 17 Republicans shift and vote against their party to remove Bush and Cheney? Assuming that they do not have an individual conscience that drives them to remove the current incompetents in office as President and Vice President (a historically-supported good assumption - few Senators will give up office simply for conscience), then it is only the threat that their voters will remove them from office that will induce them to go against the desires of their party. So the next election is really important to any possible impeachment of Bush and Cheney.

There are 34 Senator seats up for election in 2008. 22 of those are currently filled by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. Democrats currently hold 49 seats, so they would need to win 18 of the Republican seats and not lose any Democratic seats in order to be assured that they could remove an impeached President on a party-line vote. That's not going to happen.

Bush is the Re publican's President. As long as 18 of the Republicans refuse to impeach him, he remains as commander in chief.

As Bush made very clear in his speech Thursday night, he is not going to take any actions to end the war of occupation in Iraq. Instead he is setting it up for the American troops to occupy that country and fight there for at least a decade and longer if possible.

Unless 18 Republican Senators will vote with all the Democrats to remove him, the Constitution gives Bush the power to keep troops fighting in Iraq until the end of January 2009. 49 Democratic Senators would vote to remove Bush and Cheney today. That makes the war in Iraq a war fought for - but not by - the Republican party. Iraq is a Republican Party war, not an American war.

That makes the reelection of some 34 Senators critical to the direction of the occupation/war in Iraq. But that is also dependent on the willingness of Nancy Pelosi to begin to act on impeachment of Bush and Cheney.

I'd propose that Washington Democrats put pressure on Nancy Pelosi and on the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.