If you want an outstanding discussion of why the current economic situation is the way it is, this is a great place to start. The comments to each post are in many ways as illuminating as the posts themselves. My post is intended to pull the related posts together into a single location for convenience.
(note: These posts are listed in oldest first order, which is the reverse of the traditional blog order found on the TPM Cafe website. This oldest first order is, however, the logical way to follow any stream of thought.)
Krugman starts out on December 15th with this comment which he titled "When the world's in crisis, the rules don't apply":
Right now the world economy is in a nosedive, and understanding what I call "depression economics" -- the weird world you get into when even a zero interest rate isn't low enough, and a messed-up financial system is dragging down the real economy -- is essential if we're going to avoid the worst.Click through to read the comments to this initial post. Below are the followup articles from December 15th through December 19th contributing to the discussion. The comments to each post are frequently as illuminating as the post itself.
The key thing, when you're in a situation like this, is realizing that normal rules don't apply. Ordinarily we'd welcome an increase in private saving; right now we're living in a world subject to the "paradox of thrift," in which private virtue is public vice. Normally we want to be careful that public funds are spent wisely; right now the crucial thing is that they be spent fast. (John Maynard Keynes once suggested burying bottles of cash in coal mines and letting the private sector dig them up -- not as a real proposal, but as a way of emphasizing the priority of supporting demand.)
The big test for the next few months will be whether policymakers here and abroad can wrap their minds around this Alice-in-Wonderland world. If they can't, nobody knows how deep the rabbit hole goes.
December 15, 2008
- 1998 and 2008: What's Different? by Brad Delong
- Let's Spend and Spend, but Avoid Bad Spending by Dean Baker
- Dean Baker Talks to His Inner Hayek by Brad Delong
- Will a Stimulus be enough? by Robert Reich
- The Great Moderation in the Confidence of Monetary Economists by Mark Thoma
- Caveat to Keynes and Krugman: a Proposal to Reform TARP by Dana Chasin
- 2008 Versus 1998 by Paul Krugman
- Japan's Fifteen-Year Long Crisis by Brad Delong
- What is to be done now? by Brad Delong
- The Global Jigsaw by Paul Krugman
- The Fear of Secular Stagnation by Dean Baker
- Depression Economics: Normal Rules Don't Apply by Mark Thoma
- Tough Times Indeed by Susan Feiner
- Stability is Destabilizing by Randall Wray
- What Is Going to Be the New Leading Sector? by Brad DeLong
- Why did WW II "Work?" by Paul Krugman
- Postwar Recovery and Unpaid Female Labor by Susan Feiner
- Why Did We Have a Golden Age? by Randall Wray
- Unions: An Effective Remedy for Insufficient Demand by Dean Baker
- What Are Non-Depression Economics? by Brad Delong
- How Should Non-Depression Economics Be Changed? by Mark Thoma
- But Can We Afford Big Government? byRandall Wray
- Policy Advice for President Obama (Part One) by Randall Wray
- Asset Bubbles: Does Talk Matter? by Dean Baker
- The Top Dozen Insights of Conservatives, 2008 by Greg Anrig
- Wray Out There by Dana Chasin
- Talk is Fine, But Rules are Needed Too by Mark Thoma
- In the End, a Return to Recession Economics, Vindicating Krugman by Dana Chasin
- Policy Advice to President Obama, Part Two by Randall Wray
- A Final Note by Paul Krugman
Note: When commenters use the term LTCM, they mean the collapse of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund in the late 90's.
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