My bet bet is that the Republicans will nominate Rudy Giuliani for President. Romney isn't going to get past the 'Mormons aren't Christians' test with the evangelical Republicans. I expect to see more evangelicals move towards Rudy before Spring. Rudy's campaign geared towards the evangelicals will be a fear campaign as the 'counter-Hillary,' fear of the looming threat of 'IslamoFascism' and anger at the way Liberals have 'stabbed the troops in the back' and prevented victory in Iraq. First let's look at Rudy's campaign aimed at the social conservatives, then look at what he offers the economic Republicans.
Rudy and the social conservatives
Rudy will take the social conservative position towards women (Women should not be in charge of men and should defer to their husbands.) which will effectively counteract the charge that Rudy is too liberal on gay rights and abortion. This part will be conducted as a stealth campaign with rumors, viral messages and sermons in mega-Churches. The public campaign will be recycling all the anti-Hillary attacks from Bill Clinton's Presidency, and the usual anti-Liberal smears of demonizing Gays, African-Americans and immigrants and blaming the 'liberals' for permitting such abominations to exist outside ghettos or prisons.
Foreign Policy Rudy
Rudy has already shown what his foreign policy will be by his choice of foreign policy advisers. Chief among them is Norman Podhoretz. He laid out the Giuliani position towards Iran on the News Hour in his angry argument with the right-wing (but sane) Fareed Zakaharia.
Norm's argument, presented with anger and disgust that anyone would even dare to disagree with him, consists of conflating every bandit, partisan, Jihadist and ex-soldier who considers himself a Muslim as members of some fictional entity he calls "IslamoFascism," then equating that non-existent mob with the tightly organized and centrally controlled German armed forces led by Hitler, and calling this fictional entity the greatest threat the West has ever faced.
The rather insane rant presented on the News Hour by Podhoretz is just the first step in appealing to the Republican social conservatives, many of whom are milleniarists who think that the war in the Middle East is a prophetic event that precedes the second coming of Christ. It may also be a realistic reflection of the view held by Israelis of the Muslim threat to their small nation. Keep in mind, Norm Podhoretz is in line to become Rudy Giuliani's National Security Advisor if Rudy wins the Presidency.
The threat of IslamoFascism be being ginned up to conceal the failure of the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Along with selling the fear of IslamoFascism and a woman as President (particularly Hillary), Giuliani is also going to run on the "stabbed in the back' theory to explain why the invasion of Iraq (which Podhoretz pushed hard to accomplish) failed. The intent is to focus anger on the 'Anti-War Liberals' who robbed America of its victory in Iraq. A sub theme here is that Iraq failed because Bush was not 'Conservative enough' so Bush is becoming a non-person in the Republican Primary debates.
[Addendum 12:57 PM CDT] Josh Marshall has a very good video on Giuliani's foreign policy advisers. [/Addendum 12:57 PM CDT]
All of this is aimed to get the social conservatives to get out and vote. The economic Republicans are a different group.
Rudy and the economic conservatives
Rudy offers the economic conservatives more union-busting, lower taxes, further removal of regulations, no Sherman Anti-Trust enforcement, and more outsourcing of government jobs into lucrative contracts to favored cronies. Selling toll-roads to private contractors creates overnight multi-millionaires, as does contracting out military logistics to firms like Halliburton and also contracting out prisons and hiring security firms like Blackwater.
Wall Street continues to salivate at the great pots of money that would be handed to them if Social Security were privatized. Universal health care is a similar bonanza if the government can be forced into using the private insurance companies to administer it.
These are all ways for Republican cronies to make a lot of money quickly, especially if there is no effective oversight of the contracts. Government oversight is a threat posed by incoming Democrats, probably a bigger threat than increased taxes on the wealthy.
I'm wrapping the 'Movement Conservatives' into the economic conservative category for right now. I see them as primarily economic conservatives, who cross over into extreme dislike for government interference in Race, Gender and Sexual Preference decisions in business. They are allies with the evangelist Republicans, but most movement conservatives are not, themselves, politically motivated by religious views. They are involved in politics to make money and gain power. I am open to disagreement on this, but I think that's how Rudy's campaign will approach the movement conservatives.
Rudy and the NeoCons
The NeoCons like Podhoretz are also outside the social conservative - economic conservative axis, but they provide the justifications for the wars in the Middle East which appeal to the social conservatives especially. They have been consistently wrong since they were the main force pushing Bush into the invasion of Iraq, but they have suffered no political consequences, as demonstrated by Podhoretz' interview on The News Hour. They have simply shifted to pushing for an attack on Iran. The provide Giuliani with his foreign policy, so he has to keep them.
Authoritarian Rudy
Rudy's campaign already offers a very authoritarian take on governance as demonstrated by his period as mayor of New York. Why is this important?
Authoritarian power of the President and freedom from restrictions on its use will be needed because enforcing the demands of the evangelical Republicans and letting the economic Republicans plunder government will create a major backlash. The institutions of the Unitary Presidency and of an authoritarian government will be required to repress the backlash and maintain 'stability.' Republican leaders and the right-wing think tanks are all fully aware of this. Power is more important than democracy, particularly if democracy acts to remove them from power.
They will use democratic institutions to gain power, but once they have power themselves they will weaken the democratic institutions for anyone else. As an example, that's why Tom DeLay used illegal contributions from corporations laundered through the Republican National Committee to fund the Republican take-over of the Texas House of Representatives in 2002, then had the new Republican leadership call three special sessions of the legislature in order to conduct a mid-decade redistricting the Texas Congressional districts. The result was the five Democratic Congressmen were replaced. Those Republican Congressmen were elected by the action of the Republican Texas Legislature (elected by corporate money rather than by voters), not by the voters of Texas.
Election 2008 and after
Election year 2008 is going to be ugly. If Bush begins to pull troops out of Iraq in early 2008 and is seen to be effectively winding down that war, at the same time ratcheting up fear of Iran, I think there is a possibility - not a big one - of a Republican being elected President. That's not likely. That means that I expect to see Hillary Clinton taking the oath of office in January 2009, but it's not a sure thing. If she wins, though, the campaign will not be over for four more years at least.
The anger and lies demonstrated by the Clinton-haters from 1992 until 2000 and frequently expressed by the Bush regime are going to seem mild compared to what our next Democratic President faces through 2012. The Republican right-wing is not going to accept the finality of the election in 2008. The final vote count is not going to wipe away the fear and anger this upcoming campaign is going to unleash. Conservatives do not accept majority rule if it means they didn't win, and they will continue to attack Hillary (or any other Democrat) by fair means or foul as long as she is in office.
The Democratic candidates for President
I suspect that Hillary is ready for it, at least emotionally and intellectually. It will not surprise her. I seriously doubt that Obama has a real clue, and I know he doesn't have the experience to handle the upcoming social and political storm. That doesn't mean he can't learn on the job, but that was part of Bill Clinton's problem. He had to learn on the job. Obama is competent and ambitious, but too inexperienced to be ready to deal with being a Democratic President with a third of the country out to get him the way they were when Bill Clinton was President. Hillary clearly is sufficiently experienced. I'd prefer Edwards for his positions, but I haven't seen him go after anyone yet, so I don't know how well he can do it.
The next half-decade in American politics
The 2008 Presidential campaign has started a year early. It is taking form now, and I think that it will be Clinton - Giuliani, and if so, the Rudy is probably the nastiest, most authoritarian and most desperate (this is his one shot, and it is a real long shot) candidate for the Presidency in at least a century. The social conservatives are the largest block of the Republican party, and they have felt empowered under Bush, but now feel it being snatched away from them. They, too, are nasty and desperate. The economic conservatives and movement conservatives feel the same way.
One thing that is going to be interesting is the way the incoming President deals with the Press. Until the election, the candidates all need the Press, and FOX in particular is throwing all their weight behind the Republicans. But after the election the Press become dependent on the administration for news. The Republicans have used this dependence to restructure to reporting and opinions from the corporate media. An incoming Democrat cannot simply let the Press do as they wish with no penalties for favoring the other side. I rather hope the incoming administration cuts off access to all opposing reporters while favoring up and coming reporters who will support the Democrats. I'd also cut out any access to Chris Matthews and George Stephanopoulos since they were Democrats who now attack Democrats. The return of the "Fairness Doctrine" and anti-Trust applied to news conglomerates and radio and TV chains would also be very good. All of these things can be manipulated by the current administration, and clearly are being manipulated by the Bush administration. The Democrats would be fools to let the existing anti Democratic Party structures retain all the power given them by the Bush administration.
America has been living in that old Chinese Curse "May you live in interesting times" since at least the time of the Civil Rights Movement. Not only is it not slowing down, the right-wing idiots are out of the woodwork and pulling government levers like never before. (See the TV clip of Norm Podhoretz again if you don't think so.) With the failure of Iraq, they are losing power and they hate it. They are going to pull out all the stops to keep the Presidency or damage the incoming Democrat in every way possible, and Rudy Giuliani is there current best vehicle.
This is the way things look to me today and most of the trends will not change. The primaries could throw in a surprise, but with the collapse of the Fred Thompson boomlet, that is looking less and less likely. Similarly, a terrorist incident in October 2008 might change the election if it changed the views of independent voters enough. If we are still heavily invested in Iraq, I doubt that the 2008 Presidential election will be that close.
An attack on Iran might change that and possibly shift the 2008 election, but I don't really know which way right now. The Republicans could gain IF the build up to the Iranian attack is effective, but it hasn't had much traction so far. A terrorist event in America that was blamed on Iran might, but anyone who believes the Bush administration needs to have their meds increased.
So while I don't rule out surprises, they are beginning to look less and less likely to me.
1 comment:
I like your blog; keep up the good work.
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