Well, Bush gave a speech today that tells how we are winning and will win in Iraq. It is all going well, so right after the election in December, he plans on lowering the number of troops in Iraq. Great! We are winning and can get out and turn it over to the Iraqis!
Except... well, it isn't that clear. Everything Bush promised is something he has no choice except to do. We don't have the troops to keep the current levels there, so we have to reduce them. And... well, here it is. These are the limitations on our presence in Iraq.
The plan for withdrawal is already in place. We currently have about 150,000 troops in anticipation of the elections in December, and that is some from the previous contingent held over while the new guys coming in are arriving early.
Approximately 40% of the troops in Iraq are National Guard, most on second tours. By law, those troops cannot be activated for more than two years out of five. That means they are effectively used up unless Congress changes the law. They are already claiming it has been a backdoor draft. No chance of a change in that law.
That means a legal requirement to pull out 60,000 of the 150,000 troops. The new maximum will be about 90,000. That's the drawdown.
Certifications for capable Iraqi troops to replace them will be issued, no matter what the actual status of their training and equipment. Those certifications cannot be effectively questioned. Only the trainers really know.
The troops that are coming out will be primarily combat troops. There are several reasons for this. First, National Guard troops are overwhelmingly combat troops. Second, the Iraqi troops do not have competent support troops behind them. Third, removing the American combat troops will lower the casualty rate. Support troops can be withdrawn in Iraq to the hardened bases from which they can support the Iraqi troops with less danger.
This will be the pattern of the withdrawal. It has nothing to do with Bush administration decisions. It is all forced on them.
Most of this will happen next Summer so that the failures and increased civil war that results does not have a chance to become obvious to the American public prior to the November 2006 election.
This is all obvious. Bush is reacting to his limitations, and will try to make it look good for the election next year. If Bush can get past the election in 2006, it is unlikely that he will be impeached or forced out of office in his last two years of office.
The experience of Reagan is a precedent for that. The increasingly senile Reagan was not forced out in his last two year's because it was too near the end of his term and the machinations required to remove him would upset the American public too much, especially since he was the first Republican President elected after Nixon was forced to resign.
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