Thursday, January 22, 2009

There's nothing wrong with stimulus projects that don't start immediately.

The Wall street Journal today has a breathless article bemoaning the fact that the stimulus bill may not stimulate jobs right away.

So What? The fact that it may take a while for the highway projects and such to kick in is a feature, not a bug. That's not to say that shovel-ready projects that can start very quickly are not needed, but they mustn't be the only projects considered, and even those will have some delay as they get ramped up to start.

This recession is going to last a while, at least two more years and I am betting even longer. The stimulus won't prevent the recession and bring us back to the status quo ante. It can't. There is too much damage that has already been done to the economy. But a lot of the stimulus is already targeted at social safety net projects through existing agencies anyway and other short term expenditures. Perhaps not enough, but those will hit the economy quickly. The thing is, the stimulus has to also keep on providing stimulus over time because the market is not going to be back - no matter what the government does - to where it supports itself for quite a while. Two years from now would be a highly optimistic projection.

That means that there has to be long term stimulus built in, and not just for individuals. Jobs have to be created and maintained. That's what the highway and infrastructure investments will do. By the way, the problem for businesses is demand for what they produce, not money to meet that demand. Any tax cuts given to businesses that aren't making a profit anyway are wasted. They won't get anything. Similarly, tax cuts and grants to businesses that are making a profit will not help them. They still need increased demand. That demand will largely be government contracts. The assistance to business has to be provided by creating a demand for their products. And for it to start in the future gives them time to ramp up, arrange financing and capital and get contracts.

Remember, no business is going to see that there is a one-time stimulus hitting the economy and ramp up to hire employees and go to work on that basis. They know that the one-time stimulus like last May hits, has a short term effect, and then dies out. If nothing else, no sensible bank will loan money for a business that cannot assure a long term stream of revenue. That's what the infrastructure expenditures will do.

The fact that they will not kick in soon means they can be planned for and businesses can be built based on those plans. Fast, short-term stimulus by itself is close to useless.

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