The Bush administration wants to use the older Polish model for causing regime change in Iran. The Christian Science Monitor has an interesting article on the idea. Condoleezza Rice is trying to get $75 million to provides support to internal Iranian opposition groups and to get other Middle Eastern nations to similarly support the Iranian opposition groups.
This is not a bad Idea. Diplomacy has failed to work with Iran, and military options are at best limited. Efforts to foment regime chamge as happened in Poland are about all that is left. But the circumsantces are not as favorable for the U.S. as they were in the 80's.
At the time Polish Solidarity was able to bring down the Polish Communist government, America had an extremely favorable reputation around the world. It was the beacon of democracy, opportunity and the rule of law, and was also economically on top of the world. Being supported by America could cause nationalists in Poland to be angry at the interference, but a large number of the Polish people felt that America was better than their own government.
Now, however, America is suffering from a government that unnecessarily invaded Iraq, then fostered torture in Abu Ghraib, CIA renditions to secret prison camps around the world, refusal to allow the inmates in Guantanamo to have any real review of their status, and a number of other extremely negative images. From being the beacon of democracy to the world America under the Bush administration is recognized to be corrupt, a great deal more authoritarian than previously, poorly governed and economically failing. When the most pro-American nation in the Niddle East, Turkey, shows a movie that portrays American soldiers as brutal killers, and it is the most popular movie in the nation, America's reputation is really in the toilet. The fact is, today Russia is probably perceived as a nation that is more free and reliable in support of human rights and democracy than America is.
The Bush administration has fought valiantly to keep the new abu Ghraib pictures from being published, but it was really just a matter of time. The real damage to America occurred earlier, when the abu Ghraib tortures occurred and were permitted to go on until outsiders became aware of them. The only way to prevent the public damage from that kind of activity is to keep it from happening in the first place, and if it does occurr, to quickly step in and clean house. Abu Ghraib is at best an absolute failure of the military chain of command up to at least the Secretary of Defense. If it isn't a failure of the chain of command to provide command and control, then the commanders encouraged it and are directly responsible for initiating the tortures.
The fact that there are so many pictures tells us that it occurred over a long period of time. This indicates that there was a wide acceptance of torture and an absence of control. The Military Police commander at abu Ghraib was responsible, but so was the Military Intelligence Commander who was surely aware of it if he didn't order it. The two had overlapping responsibilities in this case. The torture should never have been permitted to happen, but it did. When it was found out, the commanders should have been punished, but they weren't. Following the inability of the invading American to maintain security and prevent looting after the fall of Baghdad, Abu Ghraib was where the war in Iraq became unwinnable. At that time the entire Middle East became opposed to anything America wanted.
America's negative reputation under the Bush administration makes support of Iranian opposition groups by America a lot more of a PR negative to them with the average Iranian than was the case for the Solidarity movement in Poland in the 90's. Torture and rendition are just bad ideas. Even if in individual cases they can get needed information that is reliable (an iffy proposition in itself) the overall reputation the inevitable leaks create make it much more difficult to get people in anothe rcountry such as Iran to accept the direction and support of America in opposition to their own government.
I'm going to give Condi Rice my best wishes, and hope she is persistent and effective. But the Bush administration doesn't seem to understand how difficult their reputation is making her job.
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