There seems to be no real question that Fallujah has to be taken to make the next step towards pacification of the Sunni Triangle and Iraq. This is a requirement for valid elections that will establish a government that the Iraqi people themselves will consider legitimate, not just a puppet government that the Americans have imposed on them.
Until that legitimate government is established, one that Iraqi police and soldiers are willing to fight and die for, we cannot pull out of Iraq without leaving a civil war in our wake. The failed state will continue to recruit and train terrorists who are deadly enemies of America, just as occurred in Afghanistan.
Those are the steps that are necessary for us to get out and perhaps bring the status quo back to no worse than it was with Saddam in charge.
So this excerpt from a report in the LA Times does not bode well for the accomplishment of those tasks.
Iraqi insurgents have extended their reach over large swaths of the country, including sections of the capital, making it unlikely that the United States can establish the stability needed for credible elections in January even if its forces succeed in Fallouja, military and political analysts say.
Yet both Ali Sistani and Bush are dead set that elections must not be delayed from the current date in January of 2005. Both parties presumably believe that such a firm deadline is probably necessary for them ever to occur at all.
The LA Times also presents another article that throws real doubt on what the elections are about in the first place.
Stabilizing Iraq in time for parliamentary elections in January may be the driving force behind this week's military offensive in Fallouja, but there could be some confusion at the White House over just what Iraqis will be voting on.
"Well, I'm confident when people realize that there's a chance to vote on a president, they will participate," President Bush said Wednesday when asked whether the participation of Sunni Muslims would be necessary to make the elections free and fair.
My bet is that elections of a sort will take place, but the government that results will not be considered legitimate by much of Iraq or the Muslim world.
Bush will, of course, practice his usual level of bluff and lies and try to paint it as the establishment of democracy in Iraq before he pulls the American troops out as quickly as possible. That will be to his short-term political advantage, but will lead to disaster for Iraq, the US, and the Middle East as a whole. The result will be a failed state breeding more anti-US terrorists, or a Shiite theocracy dominated by Iran. Maybe both.
I'm sure glad Bush is responsible for this upcoming train-wreck and not me.
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