The Bush - Cheney legacy

Last night PBS showed a Frontline documentary on the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. It began with the statement that the U.S. Navy has patrolled the Persian Gulf for 50 years, maintaining the stability of the oil pipeline out of the Persian Gulf area to the rest of the world. For much of that time the balance of power between the Arab, Sunni-run state of Iraq and the Caucasian, Shiite-run state of Iraq kept Iran from dominating the area.

America's invasion and conquest of Iraq has changed all that. The Iranians, with their superior understanding of that part of the world have joined together with the Iraqi Shiites to dominate the Persian Gulf region, with the only barrier to complete Iranian control being the presence of the American military. The utter stupidity and incompetence demonstrated in the American invasion of Iraq was laid bare. [This is not a new revelation, but it certainly was presented clearly in the documentary.]

The basis for the power conflict between the U.S. and Iran is obvious. So was the solution to that power conflict that has been chosen by Dick Cheney. The U.S. will use bluster and military threat to the greatest extent possible, while refusing to negotiate with the Iranians.

All the real power in that neighborhood belongs to Iran. They understand the people, the cultures, and the real underlying power relationships, and they have the population. The U.S. has even fewer Intelligence assets designed to understand Iran than they had previously focused on Iraq. For this reason, the U.S. uses the terrorist group People's Mujahedin of Iran {MEK) to spy on Iran. The Iranians accuse the MEK of continuing to attack targets in Iran, also. The U.S. negotiators refuse to discuss controlling the MEK with the Iranians, while the Iranians refuse to discuss stopping their nuclear program, so (according to the documentary) all negotiations are at a standstill. So the power conflict between the U.S. and Iran does not appear to be either preventable or winnable at this time.

The U.S. does have the most powerful military force in the world, but it is designed for use against other conventional military organizations as fielded by a nation-state. As has been made abundantly clear in Iraq, The U.S. ground forces are highly vulnerable to the guerrilla terrorist tactics of asymmetric warfare.

For all the ability the U.S. has to project power, without effective Intelligence sources to guide it that power is not likely to cause the Iranians to back down. Nor is it reasonable to expect the Americans to back down, if for no other reason than whichever U.S. political party were to withdraw U.S. troops would lose the next election. The permanent bases for U.S. troops in Iraq and the super-embassy that is being built in Baghdad demonstrate an intent to remain there, whatever the cost.

Neither the American people nor the Iraqi people want to hear that the U.S. occupation of Iraq is open-ended, but the power conflict between the U.S. and Iran seem to me to make that a fact.

Diplomacy might be able to do something about that, but the Bush administration does not do diplomacy, certainly not at a competent level. But even diplomacy seems unlikely any time soon. Any agreement that did not also protect Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf Trucial States at the same time is doomed to failure. So is any effort that ignores the Israeli-Palestinian problem and which does not at the same time deal with Lebanon, Hamas, Hezbollah, al Fatah, and to the north of both Iraq and Iran, the Kurds. Every one of those states or organizations can effectively torpedo any attempt at an agreement that is not enforced by literally every state in the region.

I'm no expert on the Middle East, but frankly it seems to be a can of snakes that we want nothing to do with. If it weren't for Jerusalem and the Middle Eastern oil, the U.S. could just walk away wiping our hands of the problems. (The terrorism is an outgrowth of all these conflicts, and would die away if we left.)

I can see why the Israelis want to wall off the Palestinians, but that is not a really good solution. As for us, we need to replace oil as the power for American transportation, heating and cooling ASAP.

The whole mess could have been kept on a low burner if only Bush/Cheney had not decided to solve all the problems of the Middle East in one fell swoop and invade Iraq. There is no doubt at all that the invasion of Iraq was the single most stupid decision ever made by an American President, perhaps by any American politician at any level of government, living or dead. The only thing more stupid that was even possible would have been to invade North Korea at the same time.

That's the Bush - Cheney legacy. Their legacy is a monument to utter stupidity and demonstrated incomprehension.