Petreaus will soon announce results of the surge

Gen Petreaus is due to tell us the nine-months result of the Iraqi "surge." We already know that it will be ghost written by the White House. Atrios points out that even as late as last Spring a decision in the middle of August or September seemed like a reasonable timetable.

But that was the timetable on which the Republicans expected to find the pony in the room full of pony excrement. They are still looking, and somehow the pony hasn't checked in for an apple or a sugar cube yet. What we are going to get instead of an announcement of success is going to be a statement that goes something like this:

We had hoped for more progress. Things are not as good as we wanted, but there are real signs that success is just around the corner. We are just going to have to give the effort a little more time.

In essence they will pull out the old speeches from the Vietnam era and change the statement "There is light at the end of the tunnel!" to something more modern.

Something like "Elements of progress - blah blah Blah - just a little more time and effort."

There is one real problem. The war on Iraq was won when our troops reached Baghdad. The Occupation of Iraq is unwinnable.

The presence of our troops in that country is the motivation for at least half the killing and fighting, and nothing those troops do will change that. We destroyed the last effective government Iraq had and we cannot replace it with one that works. Nor can we government that country.

If the Republican definition of losing in Iraq is accepted (we do not lose until we leave and give up) then the question is not whether we lose but when. We will leave Iraq. The only question is when.

In the meantime, remember: "There is light at the end of the tunnel."

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In the meantime, the Gulf News of Dubai reports that the Iraqi government is expected to undergo a significant shakeup.

Whatever government structure that results will have to be acceptable to the people of Iraq. The recent elections in Lebanon resulted in the defeat of the expected candidate, primarily because the Bush administration supported him. Currently American support for a Muslim politician is the kiss of death at the polls. The results of any summit called at the request of the Americans will get the same negative result.

That's part of what it means to say that the presence of the Americans motivates much of the fighting in Iraq. We aren't liked in the Middle East, and the Bush/Cheney administration has worked hard to make that even more true than it used to be.

[h/t to Laura Rozen.]