Wednesday, August 02, 2006

The case for the coming Recession

Here are some warnings:
  • Today a crucial milestone was passed, as the Treasury Yield Curve entered "top to bottom inversion", where the shortest t-bill had a higher interest rate than the longest t-bond.
  • The reality is that the present economy is dependent on federal stimulus, it has never evolved a self-sustaining reason to be.
  • Bernanke admits we have had our time of "above trendline" growth, and must expect "below trendline" growth going forward. That's econospeak for recession, down turn or slog – slowing of growth.
Stirling Newberry makes the case that the current economy is about to turn down sharply. Go read it. There's lots more.

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