Why Social Security Reform Now?

Bush is pushing Social Security reform as his top domestic issue. It is an issue certain to unify the Democrats in opposition. It will also split the Congressional Republicans by threatening the ones in competitive districts. Since it seems to be a loser and there are clearly other problems in America that are of greater immediacy, the question has to be why Social Security reform now?

There may be other more immediate problems, but for American conservatives there are no other issues of greater importance. Social Security has been in their cross-hairs for 70 years, and is the basis of all effective and politically popular government entitlement programs. The conservatives have never before had a realistic chance to do away with Social security and it has rankled. This is their first real shot since the Depression. This is the best opportunity because the next election that is at risk is two years in the future, while Bush cannot run for reelection in 2008. Bush, Rove and Cheney have seen their chance and are taking it.

That is why. The "how" is typical Bush decision-making. Anytime Bush makes a major decision his invariable method is to be presented a list of all the options from which he can choose. He then invariably chooses the one that promises the largest possible gain. There is NO consideration of likelihood of success, because the people in the Bush administration have the attitude that they will change those odds by application of their own will. This "Bet the Ranch" philosophy is typical of decision-making in the oil industry.

Cheney recently made a statement that shows how they are hitting for the fences. He stated that workers should be allowed to divert 4% to 6% of the FICA tax into private accounts. The FICA tax is 6.2% of covered wages, matched by another 6.2% from the employer. 6.2% FICA tax covers Retirement, Survivors and Disability benefits, so 6% is more than half the retirement tax. This would quickly gut Social Security and allows a lot of room for negotiation. If they get any fraction of what is being asked they have succeeded, since it will open the rest to later modification. Like the annual tax cuts, such modifications can be used to do away with the Social Security program over time.

But even if the reform proposal totally goes down in flames and they get nothing, it still has two clear advantages for the conservatives. First, it helps to consolidate and the unify the Republican base while helping to set a clear distinction between Democrats and Republicans. The conservatives see themselves as in a period of expansion, so such distinction can only be good for them. They don't seem to consider an effective reaction against their efforts to even be possible, let alone significant. They're on a roll, and can't lose.

Second, no matter what else happens, this is very likely to immunize Republican candidates from the fear of the "Third Rail of Politics" as modifications to Social Security has become known. In the past such proposals contributed to the defeat of a lot of candidates. From now on, though, it is going to be politically acceptable to attack Social Security. It is going to be reduced from a career-killer to merely another contentious issue open for debate.

So "Why now?" Because they think they can and because they want to. Don't bother looking for any real problems. This is about irrational conservative political dogma and Bush administration ego. There is no other reason.