Sunday, March 13, 2016

Donald Trump thinks he is going to be President. He is wrong.

Look. The political battle going on today is between generations who have a very different life style and most importantly, a very different idea of who should by rights run America. The conservatives are the older generation who grew up in an America dominated mostly by small towns and in farming communities. Those communities were last seen as really dominant on TV in the 1950's with White families living in houses behind white picket fences.

That older America was a caste society in which if you were born White you were superior and you got handed the things that non-whites had to fight and struggle for. It was a caste society because you were born to a social level and could not leave it. But check the population figures for America. Since WW II the population has more than doubled and ALL of that increase has moved into large cities. Worse, most of those farms from before WW II are now abandoned in the countryside. The jobs people perform in the cities require more education and are a lot more specialized.

The cities are also largely populated by minorities, and to a greater extent are now run by minorities. White Privilege is now mostly gone in the cities! White Privilege got Paul Ryan his current job in the House of Representatives, but only because the Constitution gives greater weight to rural agricultural-economy votes than it does to city votes - and the writers of the Constitution specifically said that was the reason they created our government structure. They trusted the yeoman farmer more than the city "mob."

Now, in spite of the remaining dregs of White Supremacy, an African-American has occupied the White House. Mexicans are leaving the subsistence farms killed by NAFTA and moving to the U.S. (because Mexico has no ability to create industrial jobs - no water, no ports or cheap transportation especially.) Interracial marriage is totally acceptable and not especially unusual - in the cities. The rare individuals born as gay, lesbian, or even transgender are now accepted in society.

One result is that older White workers are killing themselves off through drugs and alcohol because they cannot adapt to the changes. The angry older whites are fighting as conservatives now. That's what the current politics is all about. The skinheads Trump is inciting want the U.S. to return to the old days where they did not have to get educated to find a good job, but those days are over and good riddance!

Trump is emotionally appealing to the last of the White Supremacists, and if he tries to move away from him they will drop him. Trump's reaction has been to ramp up the violence he incites. There will be more violence, and Trump is going to fail as he tries to move to a kinder, gentler general election position. He has nowhere to go but more violence.

When Trump gets the nomination he is probably going to take the GOP down worse than Goldwater did. Unfortunately, Ted Cruz is worse - and much smarter- than Trump, and Cruz has set himself to pick up the pieces if Trump collapses before the General Election. Cruz is a dominionist. He fervently believes his father when his father says God has anointed Ted Cruz as America's next leader. He is going to try to pick up the pieces left by Trump and recreate America as a so-called Christian Nation.

I think the American politics in the next nine months are going to be truly frightening and quite violent. Trump thinks he can control the violence so that it mostly just shows up on TV. He's wrong.


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Richard said...

Needless to say, my analysis went bad. Trump, as a reality TV star, was able to manipulate the media in ways I did not anticipate. He also had a great deal of support from Russian media bots to go after the social media systems. My prior experience did not include either of these factors.

I personally detest reality TV and never expected Trump to be able to use his history in that genre in a positive way in an electoral campaign. But his base of voters resembles people I know who graduate from High School (barely)and do not adapt well to college classes. It is my personal opinion that such children were raised by authoritarian parents who punish the child's failure by beatings rather than by discussing the situation reasonably with the children.

Also, Hillary was a weaker candidate than I expected. She has been attacked constantly since the 1990's by right-wing bigots, and the accumulated damage to her reputation was effective with the lower class rural voters who generally do not bother to vote. Trump reached those people and got them to turn out to vote in a way I never expected.

That said, everything I have seen since the election has indicated that the Russian intervention through social media was a key factor in getting the electoral collage vote for Trump. Trump still got a minority of the total votes, but he got the majority of the electoral college votes by about 70,000 votes in three states.

Whether this was a result of targeting those districts and using social media to get voters to switch votes I have no way of knowing at this time. But Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, ran his electoral data processing system and may well have colluded with the Russians to target those specific districts. It is a possibility, but not anything evidence has yet supported. Whether it was (1) a "Black Swan" event (totally unanticipated because it had never happened before) or (2)it was a planned and targeted result by a military use to using digital warfare methods I have seen no evidence of either way.

The second possibility is reasonable because the Russians have used media manipulation in other countries for well over a decade (since the invasion of Georgia that I recall and probably in the Ukraine and in Europe like France.) Such successes with digital warfare seem to be based on experience. As far as I know, neither the U.S. nor the European nations have experience in digital warfare. Russia has focused on in in middle Europe, so they are way ahead of us.

I think that the conservative Republicans currently are seriously afraid that they have gone down a dead end alley following Trump. Their choices are either to give up control of the federal government or to get much more extreme.

The current Republican Memorandum from Devin Nunez's Congressional committee is such an extreme and desperate effort to regain control of the situation. Instead I think they are going towards Nixon's attempt to remove the Special Prosecutor.

I hope my analysis is better than my earlier analysis of the 2016 Presidential election was.