Roubini on the prognosis for the economy

Dr. Nouriel Roubini, the guy who predicted that the economic bubble was going to burst over two years ago, has more to say about how long the technical Recession is going to last.

Weymouth: What do you believe is happening to the economy today?
Roubini: The rate of economic contraction you have seen in the last two quarters—6 percent annualized—is going to slow down. The optimists are already talking about the "green shoots" of spring, about economic activity becoming positive. [They say] we will have positive growth in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter we will grow 2 percent over the previous quarter. They expect that next year, growth will go back to above 2 percent.

Compared with this optimistic consensus, I believe that the rate of economic contraction is going to slow from minus 6 percent in the last two quarters to minus 2 percent by the fourth quarter. Next year, I believe that the growth rate is going to be 0.5 percent for the U.S. average. Even if we are technically out of a recession, we are going to feel like we are in a recession. The bottom of the economy is not going to be in three months, but rather toward the beginning or middle of next year.

That was my gut feel on the subject as I perused the statistics. But I also feel that the more the talking heads provide happy talk predictions, the more contrarian it seems I should be. They are snake oil salemen and they have been repeatedly wrong. Worse, they just want to start getting people to buy whichever product they are touting this week.

I'm gonna trust Roubini.