Is the current situation in Iraq like the Tet Offensive, or are we facing a war of cultures between Christianity and Islam?
The Vietnam War after Tet was conducted by North Vietnamese regulars, because the Viet Cong were effectively eliminated. The Viet Cong didn't go home, either. Nor were they reconstituted. They died, deserted, or were incorporated into the North Vietnam Regular forces as not especially respected junior partners.
My question is whether the same fate could befall the Iraqi insurgents. The alternative is that they are being replaced and their forces reconstituted faster than we are killing them.
Either possibility could explain the current situation. My question is whether there is any public evidence that indicates which is more likely.
I am aware of the statistics from the London-based International strategic Survey that showed there were about 5,000 insurgents a little over a year ago, and 20,000 in June. That is an indicator that the insurgents were being replaced and reconstituted faster than we were killing them. The fact that there are now more no-go areas than there were in May is another indicator, but it is still a short term indicator. It could merely mean that they are making a major push hoping to get us to leave before they collapse. It could also be a harbinger of future increases in their effusive strength.
We have watched a fast build up of insurgency actions over the last year. To rephrase the question, has that build-up peaked, is it close to peaking, or is it going to continue building up for the foreseeable future.
I've asked myself the questions. Now I am looking for ~evidence~ that will indicate the answer. Does anyone have any such evidence? A lot of people seem to have an answer today, but if it is based on the evidence I have indicated, it merely tells what the current situation is.
What is the evidence that indicates the future of the Iraqi insurgency??
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